Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the exodus from blue to red states, 5 representatives who outran President-elect Donald Trump in close districts, and the broad consensus around high-skilled immigration.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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Topline: As some Democratic governors vow to resist Donald Trump’s policies, AEI’s Edward Pinto explains that many Americans are leaving these governors’ states for Republican-led states. IRS data reveal a significant exodus from blue to red states over the past 30 years.

• Between 1990 and 2021, net domestic migration shows that 13 million people left California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. During the same period, 13 million people moved to Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.

The Problem: Pinto attributes this migration to progressive policies that have made blue states less attractive to live in. These policies have resulted in unaffordable housing, high crime rates, and steep taxes.

Better Policies: To reverse this trend, Pinto recommends blue states copy Texas and Florida’s policy playbook. Both states encouraged migration by implementing affordable housing policies, reducing crime, assisting blue-collar job placement, promoting school choice, and lowering taxes.

Topline: Absent in the public discussion on immigration is American’s overwhelming support for high-skilled immigration, finds AEI’s James Pethokoukis. A June 2024 survey by the Economic Innovation Group found that 74% of voters support allowing more legal, high-skilled immigration.

Boosting Innovation: Silicon Valley leaders, perhaps unsurprisingly, support increasing high-skilled immigration as it plays a key role in American innovation.

• The Hoover Institution found 16% of US inventors are immigrants and 23% of all new inventions can be credited to immigrants. When you combine immigrants’ direct contributions with their indirect influence on US entrepreneurism, 36% of all innovation in the US is attributable to immigrants.

Big Picture: Pethokoukis suggests America could cultivate high-skilled immigration by permitting students to receive green cards after graduation and doubling employment-based green cards issued each year.

Topline: With all the election results in, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt zooms in on 5 Republican representatives who won competitive seats and outperformed Donald Trump. Stirewalt finds the common attribute of these candidates is they ran as moderates.

Winning Factor: Each of these Republicans is explicitly committed to political moderation and bipartisan cooperation. For example, Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) led Trump by the largest margin and notably serves as the cochairman of the Problem Solvers Caucus, a bipartisan group with an even split between Republicans and Democrats.

Looking Ahead: When Republicans look to hold their narrow House majority in the 2026 midterms, Stirewalt advises them to remember that swing voters favor moderation.