“The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, after rebel forces swept into
Damascus this weekend, shattered Iran's network of influence in the Middle East
but Israel, the United States and Arab powers must now deal with the risk of
instability and extremism from the mosaic of forces that replaces him. Chief
among the rebel forces that ended 50 years of brutal dynastic rule by Assad and
his father was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Muslim group previously
affiliated with Al Qaeda that is designated as a terrorist organization by the
U.S. and the U.N. Western and Arab nations fear that the HTS-led rebel
coalition may seek to replace Assad's regime with a hardline Islamist
government, or one less able or inclined to prevent the resurgence of radical
forces, three diplomats and three analysts told Reuters.”











<[link removed]>
<[link removed]>



Eye on Extremism



December 10, 2024



Reuters: Assad's Fall In Syria Weakens Iran But May Fuel Islamist Resurgence
<[link removed]>



“The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, after rebel forces swept into
Damascus this weekend, shattered Iran's network of influence in the Middle East
but Israel, the United States and Arab powers must now deal with the risk of
instability and extremism from the mosaic of forces that replaces him. Chief
among the rebel forces that ended 50 years of brutal dynastic rule by Assad and
his father was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Muslim group previously
affiliated with Al Qaeda that is designated as a terrorist organization by the
U.S. and the U.N. Western and Arab nations fear that the HTS-led rebel
coalition may seek to replace Assad's regime with a hardline Islamist
government, or one less able or inclined to prevent the resurgence of radical
forces, three diplomats and three analysts told Reuters.”



The New York Times: Cease-Fire Talks Between Israel And Hamas Gain Momentum,
Officials Say
<[link removed]>



“Cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza and free the
remaining hostages are quietly advancing behind the scenes, mediators and
officials say, after the Israel-Hezbollah truce in Lebanon and pressure from
President-elect Donald J. Trump. While details about the latest proposals
remain murky, several officials briefed on the negotiations said the talks are
picking up steam. “We have sensed after the election that the momentum is
coming back,” the prime minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani,
who is one of the main mediators, said at a conference in Doha on Saturday.”



CEP Mentions



Wirtschafts Woche: The Fall Of Assad And The Sources Of Money Behind It
<[link removed]>



“Until two weeks ago, the Syrian civil war maintained a certain stability of
status quo. Dictator Bashar al-Assad ruled in the south, the Kurds ruled in the
northeast, and a Turkish- backed militia controlled the northwest… "The choice
between Mr. Assad and HTS is almost like choosing between the plague and
cholera," says terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler. If HTS does actually
prevail, it would be bad news both for the ethnic minorities in Syria and for
terrorism prevention in Europe. Schindler is Senior Director at the Counter
Extremism Project and previously coordinated the monitoring of ISIL, Al-Qaida
and the Taliban for the UN Security Council. Regarding his assessment of HTS,
he points out: "There are already the first videos of people from the HTS
environment who want to build a caliphate."”



Business Insider: Post-Assad Syria Will Be A New Challenge For America’s
Middle East Strategy
<[link removed]>



“In a lightning two-week campaign that shocked the world, Syrian rebels led
by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group deposed Bashar Assad, the longtime
ruler of Syria. President Joe Biden cautiously welcomed Assad's removal on
Sunday, calling it a "moment of historic opportunity."… Edmund Fitton-Brown, a
senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, an international organization
formed to combat the threat from extremist ideologies, said the main US
concerns revolve around whether the HTS would seek stable governance, or
continued insurgency. "Some aspects of their rule in Idlib have been
exclusionary and tyrannical," he said, "yet they claim to have cut ties with
Al-Qaeda and to embrace diversity (Christians, Kurds, etc.) as part of Syria's
identity."”



Mint: Salman Rushdie Attacked At An Event In New York State
<[link removed]>



“Author Salman Rushdie was on a ventilator, will likely lose one eye and his
liver was "stabbed and damaged" following an attack on him on Friday, his agent
said, noting that the "news is not good"… Counter Extremism Project (CEP) CEO
Ambassador Mark Wallace said his thoughts and prayers go out to Rushdie and his
family after he suffered the "senseless" attack on his life. "Rushdie is a
champion of free speech who has lived under the threat of assassination since
the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,
issued a fatwa against him in 1989. Despite the continuous calls for his
execution by the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, Rushdie has
refused to be intimidated. His bravery and commitment to his values should be
celebrated in this difficult moment."”



Merkur.de: Fight For Raw Materials After Assad's Fall Could Strengthen Is
Terrorists: "With Consequences For Germany"
<[link removed]>



“... One thing is clear: the Syrian alliance Hai'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS),
which together with other groups overthrew Assad, is not a simple rebel
alliance, but an Islamist militia. Some of the main founding members of HTS
have their origins in the terrorist organization al-Qaeda. Experts fear a
resurgence of religiously motivated terrorism in the region. Terror expert and
Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler from the Counter Extremism Project sees
another risk that could also affect Europe and Germany in the medium term.”



The Guardian: Will Emergence Of HTS In Syria Raise Level Of Global Terrorism
Threats?
<[link removed]>



“... External experts are divided as to how HTS might govern. Edmund
Fitton-Brown, a former UN terror expert and senior adviser to the Counter
Extremism Project, said “good academic experts know HTS and disagree very
sharply with each other. Some will tell you it is reformist and will be law
abiding; others will say it is the Taliban all over again” – a reference to the
Islamist group that took over Afghanistan again after the US withdrawal in
2021. The reality is that the truth is unknown, but it is also not yet
important from an international security perspective.”



Daily Mail: How Syria Could Turn Into Another Global Nightmare: Humiliated
Putin Will Face Turkey, The US, Iran, Israel And Islamists In Fight For Control
- Amid Fears ISIS Will Use The Chaos To Rebuild For A New Campaign Of Terror
<[link removed]>



“Syrian rebel groups capped off their lightning offensive against government
forces this weekend when they seized the capital city Damascus, thus sealing
the stunning fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's longstanding regime.
The president's last-ditch escape to Russia to avoid certain death at the hands
of the rebels marked the end of some five decades of the Assad family's
dynastic rule - and the end of a brutal 14-year civil war… Edmund Fitton-Brown,
Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, told MailOnline that a
best-case scenario could see HTS work with other factions to achieve stability.
'Will there be democracy? Probably not in the Western sense - but some kind of
consultative system, possibly involving elections, could emerge,' he said.”



United States



Associated Press: US Says Terror Designation Doesn’t Bar Talks With Syrian
Rebel Group
<[link removed]>



“The State Department said Monday it is not actively reviewing the “foreign
terrorist organization” designation of the main Syrian rebel group that
overthrew Bashar Assad’s government this weekend. But, it said such
designations are constantly under review, and that even while it’s in place,
the label does not bar U.S. officials from speaking with the group. “There is
no specific review related to what happened” over the weekend, State Department
spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters. “That said, we are always reviewing.
Based on their actions, there could be a change in our sanctions posture, but
we have nothing today.” He said a review could be initiated if Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham, known as HTS, takes steps to reverse the reasons for its designation.
That would be based entirely on its actions, he said.”



Reuters: Terror Victims' SCOTUS Case Will Test Palestinian Groups' Due Process
Rights
<[link removed]>



“The U.S. Supreme Court will have to decide some profound questions about the
original meaning of the 5th Amendment’s due process clause when it hears a pair
of cases that will determine whether American victims of attacks allegedly
orchestrated by the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian
Authority can sue the groups in U.S. courts. The Supreme Court on Friday
granted two petitions — one by a group of victims and surviving family members,
opens new tab, the other by the U.S. Justice Department, opens new tab — asking
the justices to review a 2023 appellate decision, affirming the dismissal of
Anti-Terrorism Act claims against the Palestinian groups.”



Fox News: Biden Seems To Take Credit For Assad's Downfall Amid Fears Of
Islamic State Revival
<[link removed]>



“The rapid-fire collapse of the Syrian dictatorship of Bashar Assad has
engulfed the Biden administration in a new wave of criticism about its efforts
to claim a win for the end of one of the most brutal regimes in the Middle
East. Questions abound about whether Biden’s foreign policy team had a
significant blind spot in Syria, where roughly 900 U.S. troops and American
military contractors operate in the northeastern part of the war-ravaged
country. Speaking from the White House on Sunday, President Biden seemed to
claim a much-needed victory for his administration's foreign policy, "Our
approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East." "This is a
direct result of the blows that Ukraine, Israel have delivered upon their own
self-defense with unflagging support of the United States," he said.”



Syria



The Hill: Syria Turmoil Puts US Troops In Bind, Scrambles Alliances
<[link removed]>



“The collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria throws a major wrench into
the counter-ISIS mission for the roughly 900 U.S. troops in the country, while
also complicating Washington’s allies in the region. The U.S. carried out a
massive preemptive strike against ISIS over the weekend as Syria’s capital of
Damascus fell to a rebel coalition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Assad
fled to Moscow. While Assad’s main backers, Iran and Russia, are expected to
suffer the most from the collapse, the U.S. and its Kurdish allies will now
have to work with a coalition of rebels largely backed by Turkey, which
considers Kurdish fighters terrorists. The emerging new coalition in Damascus
could also have big implications for relations among other U.S. allies in the
region, including Iraq, Israel and Jordan.”



Pakistan



Associated Press: 2 Suspects Carrying Explosives On A Motorcycle Killed In
Blast Near A Police Station In Pakistan
<[link removed]>



“An explosive device carried on a motorcycle by two suspected militants in
restive southwestern Pakistan ignited prematurely near a police station Monday
killing the suspects, police said. The blast happened in Killa Abdullah, a town
75 kilometers (45 miles) north of Quetta, the provincial capital of
Balochistan. Local police officer Ghulam Rasool said the men were near the
Mezai police station when the blast took place. He said officers were still
investigating to determine whether either of the suspects was a suicide bomber
targeting the police station. Rasool provided no further details. Balochistan
for decades has been the scene of a low-level insurgency by small separatists
groups demanding independence from the federal government and a greater share
in the region’s natural resources, such as gas and oil.”



Lebanon



Reuters: Lebanon's Hezbollah Sees 'Major, Dangerous' Change In Syria
<[link removed]>



“Lebanon's Hezbollah views events in Syria as a "major, dangerous and new
transformation", a senior Hezbollah politician said on Monday, the Iran-backed
group's first reaction to the toppling of its ally Bashar al-Assad. Hezbollah
played a major part propping up Assad through years of war in Syria, before
bringing its fighters back to Lebanon over the last year to fight in a bruising
war with Israel - a redeployment which weakened Syrian government lines. His
downfall has stripped Hezbollah of a vital ally along Lebanon's eastern border.
Assad-ruled Syria long served as a vital conduit for Iran to supply weapons to
the Shi'ite Islamist Hezbollah. "What is happening in Syria is a major,
dangerous and new transformation, and how and why what happened requires an
evaluation, and the evaluation is not done on the podiums," Hezbollah lawmaker
Hassan Fadlallah said in a statement.”



Middle East



Reuters: Israel 'More Optimistic' On Prospects Of Gaza Hostage Deal
<[link removed]>



“Israel is now more optimistic about a possible hostage deal in Gaza, Foreign
Minister Gideon Saar said on Monday, amid reports that Hamas had asked for
lists of all hostages still held by militant groups in the Palestinian enclave.
He said indirect negotiations were under way about the return of about 100
hostages and that, while it was still too early to be sure, prospects had
improved. "We can be more optimistic than before but we are not there yet. I
hope we will be there," Saar told a press conference in Jerusalem, reiterating
Israel's position that the hostages still held in Gaza must be returned before
Israel agrees to an end to the fighting. "There will not be a ceasefire in Gaza
without a hostage deal," he said.”



The Guardian: Benjamin Netanyahu Begins Giving Evidence In His Corruption Trial

<[link removed]>



“Benjamin Netanyahu has begun giving evidence in a court in Tel Aviv in his
long-running corruption trial, becoming the first sitting Israeli prime
minister to take the stand as a criminal defendant. “I have waited eight years
for this moment, to say the truth as I remember it, which is important for
justice,” said Netanyahu, who was wearing a blue suit and white shirt, with a
flag of Israel on one lapel and the yellow ribbon symbol of Israel’s hostages
in Gaza on the other. “But I am also a prime minister. I am leading the country
through a seven-front war. And I think the two can be done in parallel.” He
called the charges against him “an ocean of absurdness” and promised his
version would cut through the prosecution’s case.”



Nigeria



Reuters: Gunmen Kidnap At Least 50 In Nigeria's Zamfara State, Residents And
Police Say
<[link removed]>



“A gang of gunmen kidnapped more than 50 women and children in a raid on
Kakin Dawa village in Nigeria's northwest Zamfara state, police and residents
said. Kidnapping for ransom by gunmen, known by locals as bandits, is rife in
northwest Nigeria due to high levels of poverty, unemployment and the
proliferation of illegal firearms. Zamfara police said the incident took place
on Sunday and that additional security forces were being deployed to the area.
Residents said dozens of assailants riding on motorcycles arrived in the
village at around 1230 GMT, armed with assault rifles, and went from house to
house kidnapping residents. "Later we found out that they kidnapped more than
50 women, including married women and girls," said Hassan Ya'u, who escaped the
attack but whose younger sister was taken.”



United Kingdom



BBC: Woman Charged With Terrorism Offence
<[link removed]>



“A woman has been charged with a terrorism offence as part of an inquiry into
material taken into a prison. Counter Terrorism Policing North East also
charged three other individuals following an investigation at HMP Lindholme,
near Doncaster. Rhea Wood, 35, of Shoreham Street, Sheffield was charged with
dissemination of terrorist publications and conspiring to bring a List B
prohibited article into or out of a prison. She will appear for a hearing
regarding the terrorism offence at the Central Criminal Court in London on 20
December 2024. Abdullah Mohammed, 32, of Christchurch Road, Doncaster, Menna
Mohammed, 36, of Wisewood Place, Sheffield and Mohammed Abdo, 34, of HMP
Wealstun, were also charged with conspiring to bring a List B prohibited
article into or out of a prison.”



Associated Press: 6 People Charged In UK With Belonging To A Banned Kurdish
Group
<[link removed]>



“British police have charged six people with belonging to a banned Kurdish
militant group, the PKK. London’s Metropolitan Police force said the suspects
were due in court for an initial hearing later Tuesday, charged with
“membership of a terrorist organization.” The six, aged between 23 and 62, were
all arrested in London on Nov. 27. A 31-year-old suspect arrested the same day
was released without charge. The PKK, or Kurdistan Workers’ Party, has waged a
decades-long insurgency in Turkey aimed at winning an independent Kurdish state
and is banned as a terrorist group in the U.K. After the arrests, police
searched premises in north London including a Kurdish community center,
sparking protests.”



Germany



Associated Press: 3 Men Arrested In Germany Over Suspected Preparations For An
Islamic Extremist Attack
<[link removed]>



“Two young men who sympathized with the Islamic State group and a suspected
accomplice have been arrested in Germany for allegedly making preparations for
an attack, authorities said Tuesday. The two German Lebanese brothers aged 15
and 20 from the southwestern city of Mannheim and a 22-year-old German Turkish
man from the neighboring state of Hesse were arrested on Sunday, prosecutors
and police said in a statement. The brothers are accused of preparing for an
attack motivated by their religious ideology and “profound sympathy” for the
Islamic State group, procuring among other things an assault rifle and
ammunition. The weapon was found at the 22-year-old’s home, the statement said.”



Australia



Jewish News Syndicate: Australian Prime Minister Calls Torching Of Melbourne
Synagogue ‘Terrorism’
<[link removed]>



“Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday condemned the recent
torching of a synagogue in Melbourne as “terrorism” and warned about the
“worrying rise in antisemitism” in his country. Albanese, whose left-wing Labor
government has been accused of pursuing anti-Israel positions, declined to
address claims by his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, that these
positions had helped ignite the attack. Asked about Netanyahu’s allegations,
Albanese said during an interview on Sunday: “Well, that is a matter for Mr.
Netanyahu, but can I make this point very clearly, that 157 countries supported
the resolution that was passed by the United Nations.””



The Counter Extremism Project depends on the generosity of its supporters. If
you value what we do, please consider making a donation.

DONATE NOW
<[link removed]>
 




Click here to unsubscribe.
<[link removed]>