Eye on Extremism
December 10, 2024
Reuters: Assad's Fall In Syria Weakens Iran But May Fuel Islamist Resurgence
“The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, after rebel forces swept into Damascus this weekend, shattered Iran's network of influence in the Middle East but Israel, the United States and Arab powers must now deal with the risk of instability and extremism from the mosaic of forces that replaces him. Chief among the rebel forces that ended 50 years of brutal dynastic rule by Assad and his father was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Muslim group previously affiliated with Al Qaeda that is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the U.N. Western and Arab nations fear that the HTS-led rebel coalition may seek to replace Assad's regime with a hardline Islamist government, or one less able or inclined to prevent the resurgence of radical forces, three diplomats and three analysts told Reuters.”
The New York Times: Cease-Fire Talks Between Israel And Hamas Gain Momentum, Officials Say
“Cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza and free the remaining hostages are quietly advancing behind the scenes, mediators and officials say, after the Israel-Hezbollah truce in Lebanon and pressure from President-elect Donald J. Trump. While details about the latest proposals remain murky, several officials briefed on the negotiations said the talks are picking up steam. “We have sensed after the election that the momentum is coming back,” the prime minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who is one of the main mediators, said at a conference in Doha on Saturday.”
CEP Mentions
Wirtschafts Woche: The Fall Of Assad And The Sources Of Money Behind It
“Until two weeks ago, the Syrian civil war maintained a certain stability of status quo. Dictator Bashar al-Assad ruled in the south, the Kurds ruled in the northeast, and a Turkish- backed militia controlled the northwest… "The choice between Mr. Assad and HTS is almost like choosing between the plague and cholera," says terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler. If HTS does actually prevail, it would be bad news both for the ethnic minorities in Syria and for terrorism prevention in Europe. Schindler is Senior Director at the Counter Extremism Project and previously coordinated the monitoring of ISIL, Al-Qaida and the Taliban for the UN Security Council. Regarding his assessment of HTS, he points out: "There are already the first videos of people from the HTS environment who want to build a caliphate."”
Business Insider: Post-Assad Syria Will Be A New Challenge For America’s Middle East Strategy
“In a lightning two-week campaign that shocked the world, Syrian rebels led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group deposed Bashar Assad, the longtime ruler of Syria. President Joe Biden cautiously welcomed Assad's removal on Sunday, calling it a "moment of historic opportunity."… Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, an international organization formed to combat the threat from extremist ideologies, said the main US concerns revolve around whether the HTS would seek stable governance, or continued insurgency. "Some aspects of their rule in Idlib have been exclusionary and tyrannical," he said, "yet they claim to have cut ties with Al-Qaeda and to embrace diversity (Christians, Kurds, etc.) as part of Syria's identity."”
Mint: Salman Rushdie Attacked At An Event In New York State
“Author Salman Rushdie was on a ventilator, will likely lose one eye and his liver was "stabbed and damaged" following an attack on him on Friday, his agent said, noting that the "news is not good"… Counter Extremism Project (CEP) CEO Ambassador Mark Wallace said his thoughts and prayers go out to Rushdie and his family after he suffered the "senseless" attack on his life. "Rushdie is a champion of free speech who has lived under the threat of assassination since the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, issued a fatwa against him in 1989. Despite the continuous calls for his execution by the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, Rushdie has refused to be intimidated. His bravery and commitment to his values should be celebrated in this difficult moment."”
Merkur.de: Fight For Raw Materials After Assad's Fall Could Strengthen Is Terrorists: "With Consequences For Germany"
“... One thing is clear: the Syrian alliance Hai'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which together with other groups overthrew Assad, is not a simple rebel alliance, but an Islamist militia. Some of the main founding members of HTS have their origins in the terrorist organization al-Qaeda. Experts fear a resurgence of religiously motivated terrorism in the region. Terror expert and Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler from the Counter Extremism Project sees another risk that could also affect Europe and Germany in the medium term.”
The Guardian: Will Emergence Of HTS In Syria Raise Level Of Global Terrorism Threats?
“... External experts are divided as to how HTS might govern. Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former UN terror expert and senior adviser to the Counter Extremism Project, said “good academic experts know HTS and disagree very sharply with each other. Some will tell you it is reformist and will be law abiding; others will say it is the Taliban all over again” – a reference to the Islamist group that took over Afghanistan again after the US withdrawal in 2021. The reality is that the truth is unknown, but it is also not yet important from an international security perspective.”
Daily Mail: How Syria Could Turn Into Another Global Nightmare: Humiliated Putin Will Face Turkey, The US, Iran, Israel And Islamists In Fight For Control - Amid Fears ISIS Will Use The Chaos To Rebuild For A New Campaign Of Terror
“Syrian rebel groups capped off their lightning offensive against government forces this weekend when they seized the capital city Damascus, thus sealing the stunning fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's longstanding regime. The president's last-ditch escape to Russia to avoid certain death at the hands of the rebels marked the end of some five decades of the Assad family's dynastic rule - and the end of a brutal 14-year civil war… Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, told MailOnline that a best-case scenario could see HTS work with other factions to achieve stability. 'Will there be democracy? Probably not in the Western sense - but some kind of consultative system, possibly involving elections, could emerge,' he said.”
United States
Associated Press: US Says Terror Designation Doesn’t Bar Talks With Syrian Rebel Group
“The State Department said Monday it is not actively reviewing the “foreign terrorist organization” designation of the main Syrian rebel group that overthrew Bashar Assad’s government this weekend. But, it said such designations are constantly under review, and that even while it’s in place, the label does not bar U.S. officials from speaking with the group. “There is no specific review related to what happened” over the weekend, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters. “That said, we are always reviewing. Based on their actions, there could be a change in our sanctions posture, but we have nothing today.” He said a review could be initiated if Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known as HTS, takes steps to reverse the reasons for its designation. That would be based entirely on its actions, he said.”
Reuters: Terror Victims' SCOTUS Case Will Test Palestinian Groups' Due Process Rights
“The U.S. Supreme Court will have to decide some profound questions about the original meaning of the 5th Amendment’s due process clause when it hears a pair of cases that will determine whether American victims of attacks allegedly orchestrated by the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian Authority can sue the groups in U.S. courts. The Supreme Court on Friday granted two petitions — one by a group of victims and surviving family members, opens new tab, the other by the U.S. Justice Department, opens new tab — asking the justices to review a 2023 appellate decision, affirming the dismissal of Anti-Terrorism Act claims against the Palestinian groups.”
Fox News: Biden Seems To Take Credit For Assad's Downfall Amid Fears Of Islamic State Revival
“The rapid-fire collapse of the Syrian dictatorship of Bashar Assad has engulfed the Biden administration in a new wave of criticism about its efforts to claim a win for the end of one of the most brutal regimes in the Middle East. Questions abound about whether Biden’s foreign policy team had a significant blind spot in Syria, where roughly 900 U.S. troops and American military contractors operate in the northeastern part of the war-ravaged country. Speaking from the White House on Sunday, President Biden seemed to claim a much-needed victory for his administration's foreign policy, "Our approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East." "This is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine, Israel have delivered upon their own self-defense with unflagging support of the United States," he said.”
Syria
The Hill: Syria Turmoil Puts US Troops In Bind, Scrambles Alliances
“The collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria throws a major wrench into the counter-ISIS mission for the roughly 900 U.S. troops in the country, while also complicating Washington’s allies in the region. The U.S. carried out a massive preemptive strike against ISIS over the weekend as Syria’s capital of Damascus fell to a rebel coalition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Assad fled to Moscow. While Assad’s main backers, Iran and Russia, are expected to suffer the most from the collapse, the U.S. and its Kurdish allies will now have to work with a coalition of rebels largely backed by Turkey, which considers Kurdish fighters terrorists. The emerging new coalition in Damascus could also have big implications for relations among other U.S. allies in the region, including Iraq, Israel and Jordan.”
Pakistan
Associated Press: 2 Suspects Carrying Explosives On A Motorcycle Killed In Blast Near A Police Station In Pakistan
“An explosive device carried on a motorcycle by two suspected militants in restive southwestern Pakistan ignited prematurely near a police station Monday killing the suspects, police said. The blast happened in Killa Abdullah, a town 75 kilometers (45 miles) north of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. Local police officer Ghulam Rasool said the men were near the Mezai police station when the blast took place. He said officers were still investigating to determine whether either of the suspects was a suicide bomber targeting the police station. Rasool provided no further details. Balochistan for decades has been the scene of a low-level insurgency by small separatists groups demanding independence from the federal government and a greater share in the region’s natural resources, such as gas and oil.”
Lebanon
Reuters: Lebanon's Hezbollah Sees 'Major, Dangerous' Change In Syria
“Lebanon's Hezbollah views events in Syria as a "major, dangerous and new transformation", a senior Hezbollah politician said on Monday, the Iran-backed group's first reaction to the toppling of its ally Bashar al-Assad. Hezbollah played a major part propping up Assad through years of war in Syria, before bringing its fighters back to Lebanon over the last year to fight in a bruising war with Israel - a redeployment which weakened Syrian government lines. His downfall has stripped Hezbollah of a vital ally along Lebanon's eastern border. Assad-ruled Syria long served as a vital conduit for Iran to supply weapons to the Shi'ite Islamist Hezbollah. "What is happening in Syria is a major, dangerous and new transformation, and how and why what happened requires an evaluation, and the evaluation is not done on the podiums," Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said in a statement.”
Middle East
Reuters: Israel 'More Optimistic' On Prospects Of Gaza Hostage Deal
“Israel is now more optimistic about a possible hostage deal in Gaza, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Monday, amid reports that Hamas had asked for lists of all hostages still held by militant groups in the Palestinian enclave. He said indirect negotiations were under way about the return of about 100 hostages and that, while it was still too early to be sure, prospects had improved. "We can be more optimistic than before but we are not there yet. I hope we will be there," Saar told a press conference in Jerusalem, reiterating Israel's position that the hostages still held in Gaza must be returned before Israel agrees to an end to the fighting. "There will not be a ceasefire in Gaza without a hostage deal," he said.”
The Guardian: Benjamin Netanyahu Begins Giving Evidence In His Corruption Trial
“Benjamin Netanyahu has begun giving evidence in a court in Tel Aviv in his long-running corruption trial, becoming the first sitting Israeli prime minister to take the stand as a criminal defendant. “I have waited eight years for this moment, to say the truth as I remember it, which is important for justice,” said Netanyahu, who was wearing a blue suit and white shirt, with a flag of Israel on one lapel and the yellow ribbon symbol of Israel’s hostages in Gaza on the other. “But I am also a prime minister. I am leading the country through a seven-front war. And I think the two can be done in parallel.” He called the charges against him “an ocean of absurdness” and promised his version would cut through the prosecution’s case.”
Nigeria
Reuters: Gunmen Kidnap At Least 50 In Nigeria's Zamfara State, Residents And Police Say
“A gang of gunmen kidnapped more than 50 women and children in a raid on Kakin Dawa village in Nigeria's northwest Zamfara state, police and residents said. Kidnapping for ransom by gunmen, known by locals as bandits, is rife in northwest Nigeria due to high levels of poverty, unemployment and the proliferation of illegal firearms. Zamfara police said the incident took place on Sunday and that additional security forces were being deployed to the area. Residents said dozens of assailants riding on motorcycles arrived in the village at around 1230 GMT, armed with assault rifles, and went from house to house kidnapping residents. "Later we found out that they kidnapped more than 50 women, including married women and girls," said Hassan Ya'u, who escaped the attack but whose younger sister was taken.”
United Kingdom
BBC: Woman Charged With Terrorism Offence
“A woman has been charged with a terrorism offence as part of an inquiry into material taken into a prison. Counter Terrorism Policing North East also charged three other individuals following an investigation at HMP Lindholme, near Doncaster. Rhea Wood, 35, of Shoreham Street, Sheffield was charged with dissemination of terrorist publications and conspiring to bring a List B prohibited article into or out of a prison. She will appear for a hearing regarding the terrorism offence at the Central Criminal Court in London on 20 December 2024. Abdullah Mohammed, 32, of Christchurch Road, Doncaster, Menna Mohammed, 36, of Wisewood Place, Sheffield and Mohammed Abdo, 34, of HMP Wealstun, were also charged with conspiring to bring a List B prohibited article into or out of a prison.”
Associated Press: 6 People Charged In UK With Belonging To A Banned Kurdish Group
“British police have charged six people with belonging to a banned Kurdish militant group, the PKK. London’s Metropolitan Police force said the suspects were due in court for an initial hearing later Tuesday, charged with “membership of a terrorist organization.” The six, aged between 23 and 62, were all arrested in London on Nov. 27. A 31-year-old suspect arrested the same day was released without charge. The PKK, or Kurdistan Workers’ Party, has waged a decades-long insurgency in Turkey aimed at winning an independent Kurdish state and is banned as a terrorist group in the U.K. After the arrests, police searched premises in north London including a Kurdish community center, sparking protests.”
Germany
Associated Press: 3 Men Arrested In Germany Over Suspected Preparations For An Islamic Extremist Attack
“Two young men who sympathized with the Islamic State group and a suspected accomplice have been arrested in Germany for allegedly making preparations for an attack, authorities said Tuesday. The two German Lebanese brothers aged 15 and 20 from the southwestern city of Mannheim and a 22-year-old German Turkish man from the neighboring state of Hesse were arrested on Sunday, prosecutors and police said in a statement. The brothers are accused of preparing for an attack motivated by their religious ideology and “profound sympathy” for the Islamic State group, procuring among other things an assault rifle and ammunition. The weapon was found at the 22-year-old’s home, the statement said.”
Australia
Jewish News Syndicate: Australian Prime Minister Calls Torching Of Melbourne Synagogue ‘Terrorism’
“Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday condemned the recent torching of a synagogue in Melbourne as “terrorism” and warned about the “worrying rise in antisemitism” in his country. Albanese, whose left-wing Labor government has been accused of pursuing anti-Israel positions, declined to address claims by his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, that these positions had helped ignite the attack. Asked about Netanyahu’s allegations, Albanese said during an interview on Sunday: “Well, that is a matter for Mr. Netanyahu, but can I make this point very clearly, that 157 countries supported the resolution that was passed by the United Nations.””
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