On November 27, 2024, Syrian rebel forces advanced into Aleppo and its
surrounding villages, launching the largest offensive against the Syrian
government in years. Dubbed Operation Deterrence of Aggression, the rebels are
led by the internationally designated terror group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS),
an umbrella organization of Islamist militant groups.





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CounterPoint Brief: Rebels Seize Aleppo, Renewing Fighting in Decade-Long
Syrian Conflict


(New York, N.Y.) – On November 27, 2024, Syrian rebel forces advanced into
Aleppo and its surrounding villages, launching the largest offensive against
the Syrian government in years. Dubbed Operation Deterrence of Aggression, the
rebels are led by the internationally designated terror groupHayat Tahrir
al-Sham
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(HTS), an umbrella organization of Islamist militant groups.



Pro-government forces and their Russian allies have since launched airstrikes
on Aleppo and other rebel-held areas. While Assad-loyal Hezbollah has yet to
enter the offensive, Iran-backed militias based in Iraq have beendeployed as
reinforcements
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. However, due to Russian and Iranian deployments across other conflicts,
airstrikes have not been complemented by forceful ground troops, allowing
rebels to quickly overtake and now control large swathes of land across the
western and northwestern provinces of Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo. Critical
infrastructure seized by the rebels includes both the airport and military
academy of Aleppo and as of December 5, the rebels have seized the major city
of Hama. As the rebels continue to descend further south, pro-government troops
will need to promptly secure the Syrian capital of Damascus.



Expert Analysis:



CEP Analyst Gregory Waters:



“In just eight days opposition forces have captured four military airbases as
well as multiple Syrian regiment and brigade bases, gaining more than 120 new
tanks along with likely hundreds of other armored vehicles, artillery, and
troop transport trucks. There is little sign the regime has been able to slow
their operations, and the opposition is likely to soon most of the eastern side
of the governorate (having already captured Hama). After this they will face
little resistance moving south into the Sunni enclaves of Rastan and Talbiseh
in northern Homs, which would put the opposition on the edge of Homs City.”



CEP Senior Director Dr. Hans Jakob-Schindler:



“The current offensive of the HTS-led coalition demonstrates not only the
weakness of the Assad regime and its backers Russia and Iran, but also the
strategic setbacks that Hezbollah has suffered in its war against Israel during
the past 14 months. However, given the character of HTS, this offensive
generates potential new counter terrorism challenges. If HTS were serious about
its separation from international terrorism, it would, as a first step, arrest
and hand over to their respective governments those foreign terrorist fighters
that operate within its ranks as well as in the territories it controls. Not
having done so since its public separation from al-Qaeda several years ago
continues to generate questions on how fundamental this separation truly was.”



Launched in 2017, HTS developed out of the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s former
official offshoot in Syria. HTS ultimately seeks to replace Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad’s regime with a government aligned with an extremist Islamist
ideology. HTS has served as the de facto governing body of Idlib for several
years and attempted to legitimize their administration by engaging with Western
aid groups, international organizations, and Syria’s sectarian and ethnic
minorities. As of 2024, HTS reportedly boasts a force of up to 30,000 fighters
who comprise most of the forces involved in the current offensive.



It is as yet unclear how the resurgence of violence will affect the
approximately 900 U.S. troops operating in Syria or how ongoing fighting will
introduce security gaps vulnerable to ISIS and other militant networks eager to
regroup in the region.



CEP Resources:



To read CEP’s report on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, please click here
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To read CEP’s history of the conflict in Syria, please click here
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