(New York, N.Y.) – On November 27, 2024, Syrian rebel forces advanced into Aleppo and its surrounding villages, launching the largest offensive against the Syrian government in years. Dubbed Operation Deterrence of Aggression, the rebels are led by the internationally designated terror group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an umbrella organization of Islamist militant groups.
Pro-government forces and their Russian allies have since launched airstrikes on Aleppo and other rebel-held areas. While Assad-loyal Hezbollah has yet to enter the offensive, Iran-backed militias based in Iraq have been deployed as reinforcements. However, due to Russian and Iranian deployments across other conflicts, airstrikes have not been complemented by forceful ground troops, allowing rebels to quickly overtake and now control large swathes of land across the western and northwestern provinces of Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo. Critical infrastructure seized by the rebels includes both the airport and military academy of Aleppo and as of December 5, the rebels have seized the major city of Hama. As the rebels continue to descend further south, pro-government troops will need to promptly secure the Syrian capital of Damascus.
Expert Analysis:
CEP Analyst Gregory Waters:
“In just eight days opposition forces have captured four military airbases as well as multiple Syrian regiment and brigade bases, gaining more than 120 new tanks along with likely hundreds of other armored vehicles, artillery, and troop transport trucks. There is little sign the regime has been able to slow their operations, and the opposition is likely to soon most of the eastern side of the governorate (having already captured Hama). After this they will face little resistance moving south into the Sunni enclaves of Rastan and Talbiseh in northern Homs, which would put the opposition on the edge of Homs City.”
CEP Senior Director Dr. Hans Jakob-Schindler:
“The current offensive of the HTS-led coalition demonstrates not only the weakness of the Assad regime and its backers Russia and Iran, but also the strategic setbacks that Hezbollah has suffered in its war against Israel during the past 14 months. However, given the character of HTS, this offensive generates potential new counter terrorism challenges. If HTS were serious about its separation from international terrorism, it would, as a first step, arrest and hand over to their respective governments those foreign terrorist fighters that operate within its ranks as well as in the territories it controls. Not having done so since its public separation from al-Qaeda several years ago continues to generate questions on how fundamental this separation truly was.”
Launched in 2017, HTS developed out of the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s former official offshoot in Syria. HTS ultimately seeks to replace Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with a government aligned with an extremist Islamist ideology. HTS has served as the de facto governing body of Idlib for several years and attempted to legitimize their administration by engaging with Western aid groups, international organizations, and Syria’s sectarian and ethnic minorities. As of 2024, HTS reportedly boasts a force of up to 30,000 fighters who comprise most of the forces involved in the current offensive.
It is as yet unclear how the resurgence of violence will affect the approximately 900 U.S. troops operating in Syria or how ongoing fighting will introduce security gaps vulnerable to ISIS and other militant networks eager to regroup in the region.
CEP Resources:
To read CEP’s report on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, please click here.
To read CEP’s history of the conflict in Syria, please click here.
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