Early data indicates marked shifts in voting behavior.
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Welcome to the November edition of The Lever, featuring expert insights and analysis from Voting Rights Lab ([link removed]) . In this issue, we take a first look at preliminary voter data from the 2024 election and assess how sweeping changes in state voting laws since 2020 impacted voting patterns nationwide.
Additionally, we take on the false premise that high-turnout elections favor one party over the other, and take a look at last-minute election law changes packed into a hurricane relief bill in North Carolina.
** HOW STATE ELECTION LAWS SHAPED VOTING PATTERNS IN 2024
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After the 2020 election, many states passed sweeping election reforms. While it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions about their full impact, preliminary data from the 2024 election indicate marked shifts that can and will shape U.S. elections to come.
Some key points we found:
1. Voters cast fewer mail ballots;
2. Reliance on provisional ballots increased; and
3. Pre-processing led to faster results.
Read our latest blog post ([link removed]) to learn more about what caused these shifts in voting behavior and how we can continue to strengthen our elections in the future.
READ OUR ANALYSIS ([link removed])
** BY THE NUMBERS
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153 million
That’s how many ballots were cast in this year’s presidential election, with hundreds of thousands more still being tallied in slower-counting states like California. When the final numbers come in, it’s likely that the overall turnout for the 2024 election will be second only to turnout in 2020 – which recorded the highest turnout ever since women’s suffrage in 1920.
Conventional political wisdom has held that high-turnout elections may disproportionately benefit the Democratic Party. A new story from the Associated Press ([link removed]) explores how this election should finally put that false belief to bed.
READ MORE ([link removed])
** WHAT WE'RE READING
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Hurricane Helene had a devastating impact on North Carolina families, claiming at least 96 lives, damaging an estimated 126,000 homes, and causing a record $53 billion in damages ([link removed]) to property and infrastructure. With just six weeks until Election Day, North Carolina election officials worked in overdrive ([link removed]) to deliver an accessible and secure election.
However, in a last-minute, lame duck session purported to pass much-needed disaster relief, state legislators have packed significant changes to election law into what was originally intended as a Hurricane Helene relief bill. Voting Rights Lab’s Vice President of Law and Policy Megan Bellamy spoke to the Washington Post, calling the move “one of the more blatant partisan power grabs for authority over elections that we’ve seen in recent years. ([link removed]) ”
READ MORE ([link removed])
** THE MARKUP
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The Markup is Voting Rights Lab’s weekly law and policy update, powered by our Voting Rights Tracker ([link removed]) . If you’d like to get these insights straight to your inbox, head here to sign up ([link removed]) . Here’s a preview of what we’re watching this week:
North Carolina legislature passes bill stripping governor of election authority. After losing their veto-proof supermajority ([link removed]) for the next legislative session, Republicans in the North Carolina legislature passed through both chambers an amended version of hurricane relief bill (S.B. 382 ([link removed]) ) in the lame duck session. The amended bill would shift administrative control of the State Board of Elections from the Democratic governor to the Republican state auditor and require voters to cure mail ballot deficiencies within three days of Election Day instead of nine. Gov. Roy Cooper has indicated concerns ([link removed]) with the bill, and has until November 30 to issue an expected veto.
Last year's S.B. 749 ([link removed]) , enacted over Gov. Cooper's veto, removed the governor’s power to appoint members of state and county boards of elections. That legislation was blocked from going into effect by a three judge panel earlier this year. Legislative leadership is appealing that ruling.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court reaffirms that undated and misdated mail ballots cannot be counted. The Pennsylvania high court ruled again ([link removed]) that mail ballots received on time in envelopes that were either undated or misdated by the voter cannot be counted for this year's general election. The fate of these ballots has been the subject of litigation ([link removed]) for years and is expected to continue as a source of disagreement.
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