Welcome to the November edition of The Lever, featuring expert insights and analysis from Voting Rights Lab. In this issue, we take a first look at preliminary voter data from the 2024 election and assess how sweeping changes in state voting laws since 2020 impacted voting patterns nationwide. 

Additionally, we take on the false premise that high-turnout elections favor one party over the other, and take a look at last-minute election law changes packed into a hurricane relief bill in North Carolina.

HOW STATE ELECTION LAWS SHAPED VOTING PATTERNS IN 2024

After the 2020 election, many states passed sweeping election reforms. While it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions about their full impact, preliminary data from the 2024 election indicate marked shifts that can and will shape U.S. elections to come.

Some key points we found:

1. Voters cast fewer mail ballots;
2. Reliance on provisional ballots increased; and
3. Pre-processing led to faster results.

BY THE NUMBERS

153 million

That’s how many ballots were cast in this year’s presidential election, with hundreds of thousands more still being tallied in slower-counting states like California. When the final numbers come in, it’s likely that the overall turnout for the 2024 election will be second only to turnout in 2020 – which recorded the highest turnout ever since women’s suffrage in 1920.

Conventional political wisdom has held that high-turnout elections may disproportionately benefit the Democratic Party. A new story from the Associated Press explores how this election should finally put that false belief to bed.

WHAT WE'RE READING

THE MARKUP

The Markup is Voting Rights Lab’s weekly law and policy update, powered by our Voting Rights Tracker. If you’d like to get these insights straight to your inbox, head here to sign up. Here’s a preview of what we’re watching this week:

North Carolina legislature passes bill stripping governor of election authority. After losing their veto-proof supermajority for the next legislative session, Republicans in the North Carolina legislature passed through both chambers an amended version of hurricane relief bill (S.B. 382) in the lame duck session. The amended bill would shift administrative control of the State Board of Elections from the Democratic governor to the Republican state auditor and require voters to cure mail ballot deficiencies within three days of Election Day instead of nine. Gov. Roy Cooper has indicated concerns with the bill, and has until November 30 to issue an expected veto. 

Last year's S.B. 749, enacted over Gov. Cooper's veto, removed the governor’s power to appoint members of state and county boards of elections. That legislation was blocked from going into effect by a three judge panel earlier this year. Legislative leadership is appealing that ruling.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court reaffirms that undated and misdated mail ballots cannot be counted. The Pennsylvania high court ruled again that mail ballots received on time in envelopes that were either undated or misdated by the voter cannot be counted for this year's general election. The fate of these ballots has been the subject of litigation for years and is expected to continue as a source of disagreement.