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Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine why red states have higher fertility rates, who's in the GOP’s new coalition, and which policies can fix Denver’s housing affordability crisis.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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1. Baby Boom in Red States
Topline: States that vote for Republican presidential candidates tend to have higher fertility rates than states that vote for Democratic candidates, finds <[link removed]> AEI’s Brad Wilcox. Data from the CDC show that in 2022 (and 2023) the 10 states with the highest fertility rates were all red states, while the 10 states with the lowest fertility rates were blue states. 



- Highest Fertility Rates: South Dakota, Alaska, Nebraska, North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana, Utah, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
- Lowest Fertility Rates: Vermont, Delaware, Oregon, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Colorado, and Illinois.



Why? Wilcox attributes red states’ higher fertility rates to economic and cultural factors that attract and support young families. Economically, these states offer more affordable housing, lower taxes, and strong job markets. Culturally, they provide parents greater educational choices and prioritize law and order.

But . . . Most states have fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, so there’s room for both red and blue states to adopt more family-friendly policies. However, Wilcox notes that blue states face a tougher challenge. Blue states tend to have lower fertility rates and lose more families through migration, suggesting that these states may be viewed as less favorable for starting and raising families.
2. The GOP’s New Coalition
Topline: Following Donald Trump’s victory, AEI’s Ruy Teixeira, along with John Judis, analyzes <[link removed]> the GOP’s evolving coalition and
how political alliances are sustained.

The New GOP Coalition: Using AP VoteCast <[link removed]> data, they highlight that the GOP’s 2024 coalition extends beyond white voters: Trump
secured 43% of the Latino vote and 16% of the black vote, reflecting an 8% increase in support from both groups since 2020.

Keeping the Coalition: Historically, both parties have built enduring coalitions that shaped American politics for decades, such as the Republicans in 1896 and the Democrats in 1932. But Teixeira and Judis emphasize that maintaining such coalitions requires implementing policies that address and unify diverse constituencies. Trump’s realignment may not endure if he fails to enact policies that preserve his coalition’s support. Failing this, the new GOP realignment could collapse, much like Barack Obama’s 2008 coalition.




“If Mr. Trump fails to achieve a realignment, it would mean, in 2028 and beyond, the continuation of the unstable equilibrium that has plagued American politics for decades.” 
—Teixeira and Judis
3. Build, Baby, Build
Topline: Amid a nationwide housing shortage, AEI’s Edward Pinto outlines <[link removed]> a roadmap for cities like Denver to increase housing. Pinto explains that a Livable Urban Village (LUV) <[link removed]> approach would legalize housing development in and around areas currently zoned for commercial, industrial, and mixed uses. This would allow for housing, such as apartments and condominiums, in these areas and smaller homes, such as townhomes and duplexes, in adjacent zones.

State of Play: In 2010, Denver implemented a new zoning code that led to increased construction of properties, especially properties with five or more units.

Next-Level
Zoning: Over the next decade, Pinto estimates that if Denver adopted the LUV approach it could add 40,000 homes and generate $1.7 billion in revenue through additional property taxes and city sales taxes on construction
materials and from new residents.




“With LUV, Colorado’s cities will restore property rights to where they belong: in the hands of homeowners and
renters, not government bureaucrats. The result would be abundant naturally affordable housing, revitalized downtowns, and enriched communities across the state.” 
—Edward Pinto
Last but Not Least . . .
How Science Must Change <[link removed]>
Productivity Is Key to a Bullish Economic Outlook <[link removed]>
Special thanks to Carter Hutchinson and Drew Kirkpatrick!
We're taking off next Thursday, but we'll be back in December! Wishing everyone a happy Thanksgiving!

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