Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine why red states have higher fertility rates, who's in the GOP’s new coalition, and which policies can fix Denver’s housing affordability crisis.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

Did a friend send you this email? Subscribe today! For inquiries, email [email protected].

Topline: States that vote for Republican presidential candidates tend to have higher fertility rates than states that vote for Democratic candidates, finds AEI’s Brad Wilcox. Data from the CDC show that in 2022 (and 2023) the 10 states with the highest fertility rates were all red states, while the 10 states with the lowest fertility rates were blue states. 

• Highest Fertility Rates: South Dakota, Alaska, Nebraska, North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana, Utah, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
• Lowest Fertility Rates: Vermont, Delaware, Oregon, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Colorado, and Illinois.

Why? Wilcox attributes red states’ higher fertility rates to economic and cultural factors that attract and support young families. Economically, these states offer more affordable housing, lower taxes, and strong job markets. Culturally, they provide parents greater educational choices and prioritize law and order.

But . . . Most states have fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, so there’s room for both red and blue states to adopt more family-friendly policies. However, Wilcox notes that blue states face a tougher challenge. Blue states tend to have lower fertility rates and lose more families through migration, suggesting that these states may be viewed as less favorable for starting and raising families.

Topline: Following Donald Trump’s victory, AEI’s Ruy Teixeira, along with John Judis, analyzes the GOP’s evolving coalition and how political alliances are sustained.

The New GOP Coalition: Using AP VoteCast data, they highlight that the GOP’s 2024 coalition extends beyond white voters: Trump secured 43% of the Latino vote and 16% of the black vote, reflecting an 8% increase in support from both groups since 2020.

Keeping the Coalition: Historically, both parties have built enduring coalitions that shaped American politics for decades, such as the Republicans in 1896 and the Democrats in 1932. But Teixeira and Judis emphasize that maintaining such coalitions requires implementing policies that address and unify diverse constituencies. Trump’s realignment may not endure if he fails to enact policies that preserve his coalition’s support. Failing this, the new GOP realignment could collapse, much like Barack Obama’s 2008 coalition.

Topline: Amid a nationwide housing shortage, AEI’s Edward Pinto outlines a roadmap for cities like Denver to increase housing. Pinto explains that a Livable Urban Village (LUV) approach would legalize housing development in and around areas currently zoned for commercial, industrial, and mixed uses. This would allow for housing, such as apartments and condominiums, in these areas and smaller homes, such as townhomes and duplexes, in adjacent zones.

State of Play: In 2010, Denver implemented a new zoning code that led to increased construction of properties, especially properties with five or more units.

Next-Level Zoning: Over the next decade, Pinto estimates that if Denver adopted the LUV approach it could add 40,000 homes and generate $1.7 billion in revenue through additional property taxes and city sales taxes on construction materials and from new residents.