CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

[link removed]
CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs ([link removed]) ).


** October Highlights
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** North Korean forces join Russian war with Ukraine
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North Korean military personnel have been moving into Russia ([link removed]) since early October to intervene directly in support of Russia’s war with Ukraine. The deployment appears to involve about 12,000 elite infantry troops, four brigades, and is concentrated in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces staged an offensive into Russian territory beginning in early August and still occupy significant territory around the city of Kursk. Ukrainian officials believe the number is moving higher ([link removed]) as more arrive at the front, and there has been speculation that the number could eventually rise to 100,000 ([link removed]) over time, as military cooperation between North Korea and Russia deepens. There have already been a few
reports of North Koreans deserting ([link removed]) from their units in Russia, and Ukraine has engaged ([link removed]) with North Korean defectors to produce propaganda encouraging them to defect.

The North Koreans augment a Russian force of about 50,000 troops which has been massing near Kursk for a counteroffensive to retake Russian territory, and their role as combatants rather than support troops is becoming clearer as some of them have begun to engage in small-scale clashes with Ukrainian units along the front since early November ([link removed]) , apparently dressed in Russian uniforms ([link removed]) . The preparations for an offensive to retake Kursk come as Ukrainian forces have been under strain along other portions of their defensive line against Russian forces, particularly losing territory gradually in the Donetsk region.

The growing role of North Korea in the war in Ukraine, which began with the supply of munitions to Russia, has heightened interest in the West in how to drive a wedge between Pyongyang and Moscow. China is clearly not happy about Pyongyang diversifying away from dependence on Beijing, and U.S. officials including Secretary of State Blinken have urged them to apply pressure ([link removed]) , thus far to no avail. The North Korean deployment also served as the impetus for the U.S. shift in policy announced on November 17 to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles against targets in Russian territory ([link removed]) .


** BRICS summit in Russia stresses building alternatives to Western institutions
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Russia hosted a summit of BRICS heads of government ([link removed]) in Kazan from October 22-24, which focused largely on discussion of building new institutions and markets as alternatives to their existing Western-dominated counterparts. Five new countries came into the grouping at the beginning of 2024—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—alongside Brazil, Russia, India, China, and previous addition South Africa. One point of clear contention was Russian President Putin’s energetic promotion of de-dollarization ([link removed]) . He pointed out that the vast majority of trade transactions between Russia and China are now cleared in yuan or rubles. Russia is working on a payments system which would bypass the Brussels-based SWIFT system. Other BRICS members, particularly Brazil and India,
are not keen on the idea. Outside of bilaterial trade between Russia and China, companies choose which currency to use. The renminbi and rupee are still not convertible. Alongside payments, the summit also discussed ideas for setting up parallel exchanges ([link removed]) for agricultural commodities—a BRICS Grain Exchange—and metals. The member governments were unanimous in their criticism of Western sanctions outside the UN.


** Europe imposes sanctions on Iran for missile transfers to Russia
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The European Union ([link removed]) and the United Kingdom ([link removed]) both imposed sanctions on a number of Iranian entities in response to Iran’s recent delivery of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. The EU sanctions target a total of 14 individuals and companies, many linked to Iran’s arms industry, but also including the national airline Iran Air ([link removed]) , which has been involved in cargo flights to transport arms alongside sanctioned companies Mahan Air and Saha Airlines. The EU also is reportedly discussing the possibility of designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization
([link removed]) , similar to the U.S. designation, but there still is not a consensus on applying the designation to a state military force, rather than a non-governmental terrorist group.


** Russia’s Lavrov backs China on Taiwan
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov published a long editorial piece ([link removed]) on October 3 in the state-owned newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta for the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations with the Chinese communist government, in which he stated Russia’s support for Chinese reunification with Taiwan. He accused the U.S. of “deliberately” causing trouble in the Taiwan Strait and of violating the principle of “One China” even while paying lip service to the idea. He also praised China’s “balanced and consistent” approach to the war with Ukraine, while not acknowledging Western accusations of Chinese material support, and praised the Chinese-Brazilian initiative to hold a peace conference with Ukraine.


** Links
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Chinese and North Korean leaders exchanged congratulatory messages on the 75th anniversary of establishing relations on October 2, but plenty of signs remain of weakened ties, with trade volumes still not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. (Kyodo News ([link removed]) )

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on October 31 that U.S. officials met with the Chinese ambassador earlier in the week to urge China to press North Korea to restrain its direct intervention in Russia’s war with Ukraine. (AP ([link removed]) , New York Times ([link removed]) )

North Korea’s trade with China hit a high for this year in September, rebounding from summer flooding, but is still below pre-pandemic levels. (NK News ([link removed]) )

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov visited Beijing on October 14 for talks with his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun on strengthening bilateral defense ties. (Moscow Times ([link removed]) )

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged to enhance economic and security cooperation at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held in Islamabad, Pakistan. (Newsweek ([link removed]) )

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on October 11 in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on the sidelines of a conference hosted there with Central Asian leaders and some of their neighbors. (AP ([link removed]) )

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on October 31 that the new partnership treaty with Iran would be “comprehensive,” covering defense cooperation alongside other issue areas, and would be signed during a visit to Moscow by Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian sometime before the end of the year. (Reuters ([link removed]) )

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, pledging that Chinese-Iranian cooperation would not be undermined by the conflict between Iran and Israel. (South China Morning Post ([link removed]) )


** Recent Analysis
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Can Trump Drive a Wedge Between Russia and North Korea? ([link removed]) (Matthew Kroenig, Foreign Policy)

North Korea Joins Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Operational and Strategic Implications in Ukraine and Northeast Asia ([link removed]) (Institute for the Study of War)

Can Donald Trump Disrupt the Russia-North Korea Military Partnership? ([link removed]) (Ted Galen Carpenter, The National Interest)


** CRANK Perspectives
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Iran’s Regional, Global Role Highlighted ([link removed]) (Cao Desheng, China Daily)


** CRANK Call
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Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy ([email protected])

Image credit: Press Secretary for the President of the Russian Federation (via Wikimedia Commons)

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