North Korean forces join Russian war with Ukraine
North Korean military personnel have been moving into Russia since early October to intervene directly in support of Russia’s war with Ukraine. The deployment appears to involve about 12,000 elite infantry troops, four brigades, and is concentrated in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces staged an offensive into Russian territory beginning in early August and still occupy significant territory around the city of Kursk. Ukrainian officials believe the number is moving higher as more arrive at the front, and there has been speculation that the number could eventually rise to 100,000 over time, as military cooperation between North Korea and Russia deepens. There have already been a few reports of North Koreans deserting from their units in Russia, and Ukraine has engaged with North Korean defectors to produce propaganda encouraging them to defect.
The North Koreans augment a Russian force of about 50,000 troops which has been massing near Kursk for a counteroffensive to retake Russian territory, and their role as combatants rather than support troops is becoming clearer as some of them have begun to engage in small-scale clashes with Ukrainian units along the front since early November, apparently dressed in Russian uniforms. The preparations for an offensive to retake Kursk come as Ukrainian forces have been under strain along other portions of their defensive line against Russian forces, particularly losing territory gradually in the Donetsk region.
The growing role of North Korea in the war in Ukraine, which began with the supply of munitions to Russia, has heightened interest in the West in how to drive a wedge between Pyongyang and Moscow. China is clearly not happy about Pyongyang diversifying away from dependence on Beijing, and U.S. officials including Secretary of State Blinken have urged them to apply pressure, thus far to no avail. The North Korean deployment also served as the impetus for the U.S. shift in policy announced on November 17 to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles against targets in Russian territory.
BRICS summit in Russia stresses building alternatives to Western institutions
Russia hosted a summit of BRICS heads of government in Kazan from October 22-24, which focused largely on discussion of building new institutions and markets as alternatives to their existing Western-dominated counterparts. Five new countries came into the grouping at the beginning of 2024—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—alongside Brazil, Russia, India, China, and previous addition South Africa. One point of clear contention was Russian President Putin’s energetic promotion of de-dollarization. He pointed out that the vast majority of trade transactions between Russia and China are now cleared in yuan or rubles. Russia is working on a payments system which would bypass the Brussels-based SWIFT system. Other BRICS members, particularly Brazil and India, are not keen on the idea. Outside of bilaterial trade between Russia and China, companies choose which currency to use. The renminbi and rupee are still not convertible. Alongside payments, the summit also discussed ideas for setting up parallel exchanges for agricultural commodities—a BRICS Grain Exchange—and metals. The member governments were unanimous in their criticism of Western sanctions outside the UN.
Europe imposes sanctions on Iran for missile transfers to Russia
The European Union and the United Kingdom both imposed sanctions on a number of Iranian entities in response to Iran’s recent delivery of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. The EU sanctions target a total of 14 individuals and companies, many linked to Iran’s arms industry, but also including the national airline Iran Air, which has been involved in cargo flights to transport arms alongside sanctioned companies Mahan Air and Saha Airlines. The EU also is reportedly discussing the possibility of designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, similar to the U.S. designation, but there still is not a consensus on applying the designation to a state military force, rather than a non-governmental terrorist group.
Russia’s Lavrov backs China on Taiwan
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov published a long editorial piece on October 3 in the state-owned newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta for the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations with the Chinese communist government, in which he stated Russia’s support for Chinese reunification with Taiwan. He accused the U.S. of “deliberately” causing trouble in the Taiwan Strait and of violating the principle of “One China” even while paying lip service to the idea. He also praised China’s “balanced and consistent” approach to the war with Ukraine, while not acknowledging Western accusations of Chinese material support, and praised the Chinese-Brazilian initiative to hold a peace conference with Ukraine.
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