Nuclear Dangers Just Became More Dangerous
November 2024
With the re-election of Donald J. Trump, the complex array of global nuclear dangers will become more difficult to address.
As president, the unpredictable Trump will again have sole authority to order the use of U.S. nuclear weapons and will exercise significant control over the direction of nuclear weapons policy.
ACA is an independent, nonpartisan, member-supported organization and, over our five decades of work, we’ve made a positive difference during difficult times and through Republican and Democratic administrations.
That said, Trump’s second act in the White House will put the indispensable norms against nuclear weapons use, threats of use, nuclear testing, and nuclear arms racing under stress like never before.
This makes our work and your support for the Arms Control Association more vital than ever.
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As our Board of Directors gathers this week to review our 2025 plans and budget, we’ll be discussing our approach to several looming challenges, including:
-A new nuclear buildup? Amidst severe geostratic tensions, the United States and all of the major nuclear weapon states are already spending tens of billions of dollars every year modernizing their deadly nuclear arsenals. As the last remaining agreement limiting the massive U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals -- New START -- is due to expire in February 2025, a dangerous three-way nuclear arms race involving the United States, Russia, and now China, is on the horizon.
Many in Trump’s circle want the United States to spend even more in order to increase the number and diversity of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Not only would such a buildup reverse 35 years of U.S.-Russian nuclear reductions, it is not necessary, it is unaffordable, and it would be counterproductive.
Though Trump showed little capacity or interest in a nuclear arms control in his first term, we will continue to make the case with Republicans and Democrats that Presidents Trump and Putin should agree not to increase the size of their arsenals so long as the other does not.
-Renewed nuclear testing? Former Trump advisors have proposed reducing the time necessary to resume nuclear testing to 6-months; we may see a push to “unsign” the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; some Trump supporters have even proposed that the U.S. resume nuclear testing, which would set off a global chain reaction of nuclear testing and blow apart global nonproliferation efforts at a time of heightened nuclear danger.
-A nuclear-armed Iran? Since Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has accelerated its capacity to produce bomb-grade nuclear material and reduced access to international inspectors. As a result, Iran is just weeks away from producing enough fissile material for one bomb and may be poised to withdraw from the Nonproliferation Treaty.
Most of Trump's advisors want him to double down on his earlier, failed "maximum" sanctions pressure policy to try to force Iran to reverse course. That is highly unlikely.
Some recommend he should help Israel try to destroy parts of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Unfortunately, Iran’s nuclear knowledge cannot be bombed away and such a course of action would, over the long-term, make a nuclear-armed Iran more, not less likely. We will continue to press for practical diplomatic solutions to keep Iran’s nuclear program in check.
ACA’s unique capacity to deliver authoritative information, analysis, and practical policy solutions, combined with our ability to partner with a wide range of organizations and allies, and engage in effective public and policy maker outreach will be more important than ever in the challenging days, weeks, and months ahead.
You can count on us to do our part and more.
But we also need your contributions now—whether in time, or money, or analysis, or activism—to put us in a position to do so.
Each of us has an important opportunity to make difference. Collectively we can.
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