As our Board of Directors gathers this week to review our 2025 plans and budget, we’ll be discussing our approach to several looming challenges, including:
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A new nuclear buildup? Amidst severe geostrategic tensions, the United States and all of the major nuclear weapon states are already spending tens of billions of dollars every year modernizing their deadly nuclear arsenals. As the last remaining agreement limiting the massive U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals -- New START -- is due to expire in February 2025, a dangerous three-way nuclear arms race involving the United States, Russia, and now China, is on the horizon.
Many in Trump’s circle want the United States to spend even more in order to increase the size and diversity of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Not only would such a buildup reverse 35 years of U.S.-Russian nuclear reductions, it is not necessary, it is unaffordable, and it would be counterproductive.
Though Trump showed little capacity for or interest in nuclear arms control in his first term, we will continue to make the case with Republicans and Democrats that Presidents Trump and Putin should agree not to increase the size of their deployed arsenals so long as the other does not.
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Renewed nuclear testing? Former Trump advisors have proposed reducing the time necessary to resume nuclear testing to 6-months; we may see a push to “unsign” the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; some Trump supporters have even proposed a resumption of U.S. nuclear testing, which would set off a global chain reaction of nuclear testing and blow apart global nonproliferation efforts at a time of heightened nuclear danger. In years past, ACA has succeeded in turning back plans to renew testing, and will again if necessary.
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A nuclear-armed Iran? Since Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has accelerated its capacity to produce bomb-grade nuclear material and reduced access to international inspectors. As a result, Iran is just weeks away from producing enough fissile material for one bomb and may be poised to withdraw from the Nonproliferation Treaty.
Most of Trump's advisors want him to double down on his earlier, failed "maximum" sanctions pressure policy to try to force Iran to reverse course. That is highly unlikely. Some recommend he should help Israel try to destroy parts of Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Unfortunately, Iran’s nuclear knowledge cannot be bombed away and such a course of action would, over the long-term, make a nuclear-armed Iran more, not less likely. We will continue to press for practical diplomatic solutions to keep Iran’s nuclear program in check.
ACA’s unique capacity to deliver authoritative information, news and analysis, including through Arms Control Today, combined with our ability to advance practical policy solutions, partner with a wide range of organizations and allies, and engage in effective public and policymaker outreach will be more important than ever in the challenging days, weeks, and months ahead.
But we also need your contributions now—whether in time, or money, or analysis, or activism—to put us in a position to succeed.
Each of us has an important opportunity to make a difference.
Collectively we can.
Thank you,