Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Nov. 5, 2024
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America Is Not on the Brink of Civil War
In the months leading up to Election Day, some political rhetoric in the United States has become increasingly hostile, and Americans remain divided on many issues. This has led to media speculation and some public concern that the United States may be on the verge of a civil war.
But this is a false narrative, says RAND's John Hollywood. If America were really on the brink of conflict, then "it's safe to assume that the level of political violence in the country would be far higher than it is," he says.
Mass attacks on the U.S. public are rare, given the size of the country. The FBI documented 50 active shooting incidents in 2023, and few appear to have been motivated by partisan divisions. Further, a recent RAND study looked at more than 600 plots for mass attacks and found that, historically, less than one-fifth were attributable to domestic political agendas ([link removed]). And overall, most Americans are not interested in political violence, subverting democracy, or civil war.
Still, it's essential to prevent and prepare for attacks. This could involve improving efforts to deter and dissuade people from carrying out acts of violence. Providing more training and support to school authorities, law enforcement, mental health providers, and social service workers could also help. Actions could also be taken to stem the rising number of hoax threats.
Reducing the risk of violence always makes sense, Hollywood says. But this should not be viewed as a suggestion that the United States is nearing civil war.
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How Might the Election Affect U.S. Policy in the Indo-Pacific?
There's a popular notion that today's presidential election represents an inflection point for foreign policy. Electing Vice President Kamala Harris would mean the continuation of liberal internationalism, the thinking goes, while the election of former President Donald Trump would lead to isolationism and "America First" geopolitics. This view is overstated, says RAND's Derek Grossman, at least in the Indo-Pacific. Whoever wins, U.S. foreign policy in this important region is likely to remain consistent. Why? Because growing threats, primarily from China but also North Korea, will continue to drive Washington's engagement with its Indo-Pacific allies.
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Homelessness in Los Angeles: “Rough Sleeping” Is on the Rise
A recent RAND study shows that "rough sleeping"--living without the protection of a vehicle, tent, or makeshift dwelling--is on the rise in three Los Angeles neighborhoods that have high rates of homelessness. According to Louis Abramson, citywide encampment policies may play a role in this troubling trend. That is, a net result of attempts to clear tent and vehicle dwellings could be a rise in rough sleeping. This, in turn, could increase vulnerability among unsheltered people. Addressing this problem will depend on learning who these rough sleepers are, where they come from, and what support they need.
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** RAND Recommends
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- RAND's Raphael Cohen speaks to Fox News about the Israeli airstrike against Iran this past weekend--and the status of conflict in the Middle East.
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- Education Week highlights findings from a recent RAND survey showing schools' emphasis on social and emotional learning curricula.
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- The European Union recently voted to impose new tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China. RAND Europe's Francesca Ghiretti explains what this move can and cannot do to help the EU's competitiveness.
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** Events
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Addressing Imploding Health Care Systems: Is Primary Care Reform Really the Answer?
Tuesday, November 12, 2024 (Online)
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Expert Views on State-Level Policies for Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder
Thursday, November 14, 2024 (Online)
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** Apply for RAND's Summer Associate Program
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Are you a graduate student? Do you want to help tackle the world's toughest policy problems? Applications for our Summer Associate Program are now open. Apply by December 2nd for an opportunity to spend summer 2025 at RAND.
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