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In the months leading up to Election Day, some political rhetoric in the United States has become increasingly hostile, and Americans remain divided on many issues. This has led to media speculation and some public concern that the United States may be on the verge of a civil war.
But this is a false narrative, says RAND's John Hollywood. If America were really on the brink of conflict, then “it’s safe to assume that the level of political violence in the country would be far higher than it is,” he says.
Mass attacks on the U.S. public are rare, given the size of the country. The FBI documented 50 active shooting incidents in 2023, and few appear to have been motivated by partisan divisions. Further, a recent RAND study looked at more than 600 plots for mass attacks and found that, historically, less than one-fifth were attributable to domestic political agendas. And overall, most Americans are not interested in political violence, subverting democracy, or civil war.
Still, it’s essential to prevent and prepare for attacks. This could involve improving efforts to deter and dissuade people from carrying out acts of violence. Providing more training and support to school authorities, law enforcement, mental health providers, and social service workers could also help. Actions could also be taken to stem the rising number of hoax threats.
Reducing the risk of violence always makes sense, Hollywood says. But this should not be viewed as a suggestion that the United States is nearing civil war.
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