Dear MoveOn member,
We know that election forecaster Nate Silver's recent models are anxiety
inducing: Vice President Kamala Harris is down by a point in North
Carolina. Two points in Georgia. Two points in Arizona.^1
But here's a little secret, John: There's reason to believe
that these models are being affected by a right-wing operation.
The MAGA Republican machine has been flooding swing states with polls
conducted by blatantly right-wing firms—and these polls may be skewing the
averages that outlets like Nate Silver's and The New York Times are
showing us.^2
These right-wing polls are part of a massive MAGA effort to create an
illusion of momentum for Donald Trump where there otherwise might not be.
But as The New York Times wrote just yesterday, "This time, the election
really might come down to turnout." The winner will be whoever draws the
most inconsistent voters to their side and to the polls.^3
MoveOn's election program has been focusing on these "surge voters" all
year, and we have five more days to make more calls, buy more ad space,
and, most important, have thousands more people participate in our vote
tripling campaign and get their friends to the polls. It's also critical
we prepare for the election aftermath—especially when this fake "Trump
momentum" crumbles before MAGA eyes. Every dollar you give right now will
support this impactful work.
[ [link removed] ]Please, John, help us leave it all on the field and put Vice
President Kamala Harris in the White House with a Democratic Congress.
Donate $9 today.
It's not an exaggeration when we say Republican polls are flooding the
election landscape. Right-wing polls are outnumbering others by an order
of magnitude!^4
But as The New Republic put it—and what might be the most important line
written about the election—"It's simply impossible to know who will be
proven right ... until after Election Day."^5
We've faced down a supposedly "inevitable" red wave before, in 2022. We
refused to listen, and the red wave never materialized. We can do it
again.
This election is far from over, John. We are a small but nimble
team, and we are making moment-by-moment decisions about where to spend
valuable resources in these final days.
[ [link removed] ]Will you help us keep full steam ahead until Election Day and beyond?
We have talked a lot about our vote tripling program this year, but that's
because it's proven effective.
The way community vote tripling works is this: Volunteers ask people who
are ready to vote—or have already voted—to reach out to three friends or
family members and remind them to vote too. It's five times more likely to
get people to the polls than other methods, and considering what The New
York Times said about needing to turn out surge voters, we know
vote-tripling is where we need to focus our resources.
Vote tripling is designed to reach, with astounding precision and
effectiveness, the left-leaning voters who don't always vote—and get them
to the polls.
We have just a few days left to turn out voters, but we are not going to
rest or take a moment off until the last polling place closes. We aren't
letting the polls, Trump signs, or anything else distract us. Please help
power our work through these final moments.
[ [link removed] ]Will you donate $9 and help reach thousands more voters
before Election Day?
Thanks for all you do.
–Mohammad, Nakia, Toni, Kami, and the rest of the team
P.S. The scariest story this Halloween is a ballot for Vice President
Kamala Harris left uncast! [ [link removed] ]Sign up now for phone banks happening daily
to help get out the vote in the key states we need to win.
Sources:
1. "Latest Polls," FiveThirtyEight, October 30, 2024
[link removed]
2. "'Red Wave' Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump's
Favor?" The New Republic, October 23, 2024
[link removed]
3. "This Time, It May Actually Come Down to Turnout," The New York Times,
October 30, 2024
[link removed]
4. "GOP-leaning polls trigger questions about accuracy," The Hill, October
19, 2024
[link removed]
5. "'Red Wave' Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump's
Favor?" The New Republic, October 23, 2024
[link removed]
Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025
is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks
communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and
undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll
our nation.
Will you donate to power MoveOn's election plan, stop Trump, and ensure
Project 2025 is never enacted?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in.
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