Dear MoveOn member,

We know that election forecaster Nate Silver's recent models are anxiety inducing: Vice President Kamala Harris is down by a point in North Carolina. Two points in Georgia. Two points in Arizona.¹

But here's a little secret, John: There's reason to believe that these models are being affected by a right-wing operation.

The MAGA Republican machine has been flooding swing states with polls conducted by blatantly right-wing firms—and these polls may be skewing the averages that outlets like Nate Silver's and The New York Times are showing us.²

These right-wing polls are part of a massive MAGA effort to create an illusion of momentum for Donald Trump where there otherwise might not be. But as The New York Times wrote just yesterday, "This time, the election really might come down to turnout." The winner will be whoever draws the most inconsistent voters to their side and to the polls.³

MoveOn's election program has been focusing on these "surge voters" all year, and we have five more days to make more calls, buy more ad space, and, most important, have thousands more people participate in our vote tripling campaign and get their friends to the polls. It's also critical we prepare for the election aftermath—especially when this fake "Trump momentum" crumbles before MAGA eyes. Every dollar you give right now will support this impactful work.

Please, John, help us leave it all on the field and put Vice President Kamala Harris in the White House with a Democratic Congress. Donate $9 today.

It's not an exaggeration when we say Republican polls are flooding the election landscape. Right-wing polls are outnumbering others by an order of magnitude!⁴

But as The New Republic put it—and what might be the most important line written about the election—"It's simply impossible to know who will be proven right ... until after Election Day."⁵

We've faced down a supposedly "inevitable" red wave before, in 2022. We refused to listen, and the red wave never materialized. We can do it again.

This election is far from over, John. We are a small but nimble team, and we are making moment-by-moment decisions about where to spend valuable resources in these final days.

Will you help us keep full steam ahead until Election Day and beyond?

We have talked a lot about our vote tripling program this year, but that's because it's proven effective.

The way community vote tripling works is this: Volunteers ask people who are ready to vote—or have already voted—to reach out to three friends or family members and remind them to vote too. It's five times more likely to get people to the polls than other methods, and considering what The New York Times said about needing to turn out surge voters, we know vote-tripling is where we need to focus our resources.

Vote tripling is designed to reach, with astounding precision and effectiveness, the left-leaning voters who don't always vote—and get them to the polls.

We have just a few days left to turn out voters, but we are not going to rest or take a moment off until the last polling place closes. We aren't letting the polls, Trump signs, or anything else distract us. Please help power our work through these final moments.

Will you donate $9 and help reach thousands more voters before Election Day?

Thanks for all you do.

–Mohammad, Nakia, Toni, Kami, and the rest of the team

P.S. The scariest story this Halloween is a ballot for Vice President Kamala Harris left uncast! Sign up now for phone banks happening daily to help get out the vote in the key states we need to win.

Sources:

1. "Latest Polls," FiveThirtyEight, October 30, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/153948?t=6&akid=413075%2E40999114%2EeX7vgo

2. "'Red Wave' Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump's Favor?" The New Republic, October 23, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/198742?t=8&akid=413075%2E40999114%2EeX7vgo

3. "This Time, It May Actually Come Down to Turnout," The New York Times, October 30, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/198743?t=10&akid=413075%2E40999114%2EeX7vgo

4. "GOP-leaning polls trigger questions about accuracy," The Hill, October 19, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/198744?t=12&akid=413075%2E40999114%2EeX7vgo

5. "'Red Wave' Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump's Favor?" The New Republic, October 23, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/198742?t=14&akid=413075%2E40999114%2EeX7vgo

Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025 is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll our nation.

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Yes, I'll chip in.

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