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October 30, 2024

This month’s newsletter features an analysis of Iran’s second missile
attack on Israel, which was carried out at the beginning of the month. The
strike largely failed to cause substantial damage and prompted an Israeli
retaliatory attack on October 25. Its result casts doubt on Iran’s
conventionally-armed missile deterrent and raises the question of whether
Iran might become more interested in nuclear weapons to fill the gap.

The newsletter also includes profiles of several companies involved in
Iran’s drone industry, as well as news about Israel’s retaliatory strike on
Iran, Iran’s involvement in the Sudanese civil war, and an expansion of
U.S. sanctions on Iran’s energy industry. Additions to the Iran Watch
library include official statements on the Israel-Iran confrontation,
Western sanctions announcements following Iran’s missile attack, and press
releases detailing U.S. efforts to degrade Houthi capabilities.

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PUBLICATIONS

[4]

A photo circulating on social media showed the spent booster of a Fattah-1
missile that had landed on a residence.

Articles and Reports | [5]Iran’s Second Missile Attack on Israel

On October 1, Iran carried out a second large-scale missile attack against
Israel, in an operation called “True Promise 2.” The operation differed in
meaningful ways from Iran’s first attack on Israel in April, and many more
missiles got through Israeli air defenses. Nevertheless, the operation
failed to cause serious damage, largely because Iranian missiles were too
imprecise to score direct hits on their targets. For that reason, the
Iran’s conventional missile force may have limited deterrence value,
raising the prospect that the country’s leaders may become more interested
in nuclear weapons as an additional deterrent.

[6]READ THE ARTICLE

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

The United States and United Kingdom recently sanctioned several private
companies involved in Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry.

[7]Mahtabal

Has been a certified maintenance and repair center for Rotax-brand
engines, which have been found in the wreckage of Iranian-made Mohajer-6
UAVs.

[8]LEARN MORE

[9]Fateh Aseman Sharif Company

Products include complete multirotor UAVs, including the Hodhod-series
vertical-launch UAVs; claims to have a license to cooperate with
the [10]Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL).

[11]LEARN MORE

[12]Fanavarihaye Hava Pishran Sazeh Sepehr Co LLC

Affiliated with [13]Rayan Roshd Afzar Company; has attempted to evade
sanctions and procure electro-optical components for Iran’s UAV program;
has shared an address with [14]Mersad Mohajer Co LLC.

[15]LEARN MORE

IN THE NEWS

[16]

Low-resolution satellite images showed apparent damage to the main building
at the solid propellant manufacturing facility at the IRGC’s Shahrud space
center. (Images retrieved via the European Space Agency Copernicus Browser)

[17]Israel Strike Crippled Iran's Missile Production, Sources Say | Axios

October 26, 2024: Israel conducted an attack against Iran dealing
substantial damage to its ballistic missile production capabilities. The
operation targeted 12 planetary mixers, specialized equipment used in the
production of solid propellant that Iran cannot replace on its own. The
attack also included strikes on four S-300 air defense installations, a
drone production factory, and a symbolic strike on a facility at Parchin
associated with Iran's nuclear research and development.

[18]Sudan’s Civil War Fueled by Secret Arms Shipments from UAE and Iran |
Washington Post

October 15, 2024: According to battlefield evidence and a report by an
independent expert group, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iran have
fueled the civil war in Sudan by shipping arms to opposing sides. The
report identified 32 flights from the UAE between June 2023 and May 2024
that were likely involved in delivering arms to the Rapid Support Forces
(RSF), and munitions captured from the RSF had markings indicating they
were produced by Serbia's state-owned Jugoimport-SDPR JP and sent to the
UAE Armed Forces Joint Logistics Command before ending up in Sudan. The
report also identified seven flights from Iran supplying the Sudanese Armed
Forces (SAF) and contained evidence that Iranian Mohajer-6 drones are in
use by the SAF.

[19]Treasury Expands Targeted Sanctions on Iranian Petroleum and
Petrochemical Sectors in Response to Attack on Israel | U.S. Department of
the Treasury

October 11, 2024: The U.S. Department of the Treasury expanded sanctions on
Iran's petroleum and petrochemical sectors in response to Iran's October 1
attack on Israel. According to the new determination, Treasury may now
sanction any person or entity operating in either sector.

FROM THE LIBRARY

Following Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran, both sides pointed to the
possibility of further escalation.
* Iran’s [20]foreign ministry stated that the Islamic Republic “considers
itself entitled and obliged to defend against acts of external
aggression” – October 26.
* The [21]Israel Defense Forces spokesman said, “If the regime in Iran
were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be
obligated to respond” – October 26.
* The United States [22]sought de-escalation, with Secretary of Defense
Lloyd J. Austin III saying that the Israeli attack “should mark the end of
this exchange” – October 26.

Iran’s October 1 missile attack on Israel prompted the United States and
Europe to announce new sanctions measures against Iran.
* The European Union [23]designated three Iranian airlines including Iran
Air, effectively preventing it from conducting passenger flights to Europe
– October 14.
* The United Kingdom [24]sanctioned seven individuals and two
organizations, including the Iranian Space Agency – October 14.
* The United States [25]added sectoral sanctions on Iran’s petroleum and
petrochemical industries – September 14.

The United States took measures to degrade the Houthis’ weapon procurement
and military capabilities.
* The U.S. Department of the Treasury [26]sanctioned an Iran-based Houthi
smuggling operative as well as several Chinese companies supplying dual-use
goods to the group – October 2.
* The U.S. military [27]conducted precision strikes to destroy five
underground hardened weapons storage locations in Yemen in an operation
involving B-2 bombers – October 16.

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2024 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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