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October 30, 2024
This month’s newsletter features an analysis of Iran’s second missile attack on Israel, which was carried out at the beginning of the month. The strike largely failed to cause substantial damage and prompted an Israeli retaliatory attack on October 25. Its result casts doubt on Iran’s conventionally-armed missile deterrent and raises the question of whether Iran might become more interested in nuclear weapons to fill the gap.
The newsletter also includes profiles of several companies involved in Iran’s drone industry, as well as news about Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, Iran’s involvement in the Sudanese civil war, and an expansion of U.S. sanctions on Iran’s energy industry. Additions to the Iran Watch library include official statements on the Israel-Iran confrontation, Western sanctions announcements following Iran’s missile attack, and press releases detailing U.S. efforts to degrade Houthi capabilities.
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A photo circulating on social media showed the spent booster of a Fattah-1 missile that had landed on a residence. |
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On October 1, Iran carried out a second large-scale missile attack against Israel, in an operation called “True Promise 2.” The operation differed in meaningful ways from Iran’s first attack on Israel in April, and many more missiles got through Israeli air defenses. Nevertheless, the operation failed to cause serious damage, largely because Iranian missiles were too imprecise to score direct hits on their targets. For that reason, the Iran’s conventional missile force may have limited deterrence value, raising the prospect that the country’s leaders may become more interested in nuclear weapons as an additional deterrent. |
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The United States and United Kingdom recently sanctioned several private companies involved in Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry. |
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Low-resolution satellite images showed apparent damage to the main building at the solid propellant manufacturing facility at the IRGC’s Shahrud space center. (Images retrieved via the European Space Agency Copernicus Browser) |
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October 26, 2024: Israel conducted an attack against Iran dealing substantial damage to its ballistic missile production capabilities. The operation targeted 12 planetary mixers, specialized equipment used in the production of solid propellant that Iran cannot replace on its own. The attack also included strikes on four S-300 air defense installations, a drone production factory, and a symbolic strike on a facility at Parchin associated with Iran's nuclear research and development. |
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October 15, 2024: According to battlefield evidence and a report by an independent expert group, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iran have fueled the civil war in Sudan by shipping arms to opposing sides. The report identified 32 flights from the UAE between June 2023 and May 2024 that were likely involved in delivering arms to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and munitions captured from the RSF had markings indicating they were produced by Serbia's state-owned Jugoimport-SDPR JP and sent to the UAE Armed Forces Joint Logistics Command before ending up in Sudan. The report also identified seven flights from Iran supplying the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and contained evidence that Iranian Mohajer-6 drones are in use by the SAF. |
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October 11, 2024: The U.S. Department of the Treasury expanded sanctions on Iran's petroleum and petrochemical sectors in response to Iran's October 1 attack on Israel. According to the new determination, Treasury may now sanction any person or entity operating in either sector. |
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Following Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran, both sides pointed to the possibility of further escalation.
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Iran’s foreign ministry stated that the Islamic Republic “considers itself entitled and obliged to defend against acts of external aggression” – October 26.
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The Israel Defense Forces spokesman said, “If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond” – October 26.
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The United States sought de-escalation, with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III saying that the Israeli attack “should mark the end of this exchange” – October 26.
Iran’s October 1 missile attack on Israel prompted the United States and Europe to announce new sanctions measures against Iran.
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The European Union designated three Iranian airlines including Iran Air, effectively preventing it from conducting passenger flights to Europe – October 14.
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The United Kingdom sanctioned seven individuals and two organizations, including the Iranian Space Agency – October 14.
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The United States added sectoral sanctions on Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical industries – September 14.
The United States took measures to degrade the Houthis’ weapon procurement and military capabilities.
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The U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned an Iran-based Houthi smuggling operative as well as several Chinese companies supplying dual-use goods to the group – October 2.
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The U.S. military conducted precision strikes to destroy five underground hardened weapons storage locations in Yemen in an operation involving B-2 bombers – October 16.
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Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Copyright © 2024 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control
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