Amidst all the election noise, it’s easy to forget that often the most consequential elections are actually down the ballot.

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Hi there,

Amidst all the election noise, it’s easy to forget that often the most consequential elections are actually down the ballot.

Which is why we wanted to remind our readers about the importance of our judicial elections in North Carolina. ([link removed])

First, a little historical context.

The Founding Fathers never intended for the judicial branch to write laws, but rather apply them, within the confines of the Constitution, to the cases that came before the Court. But, beginning in the 1930’s, the Supreme Court adopted two judicial doctrines which transformed it into a super-legislature:
1. The first was the “tiers-of-scrutiny” doctrine, which gave the Court the power to choose which enumerated rights it would enforce or ignore
2. The “living document” doctrine, which gave the Court the power to change the meaning of laws

In the 1940s and ‘50s, most state supreme courts, including North Carolina’s, adopted similar doctrines with similar effects.

Which is why our judicial elections matter.

Because what’s at stake are the laws that will govern North Carolina for the next four years.

Because of the judicial doctrines mentioned above, the Court has the power to uphold or strike down laws if the majority of justices approve or disapprove of them on policy grounds.

As a result, a four-member majority of justices can wield more power over the law than the General Assembly and the Governor combined.

Voters are generally aware that this has happened at the federal level, and often choose presidential candidates on the basis of who the candidate is likely to appoint to the Supreme Court.

We’re lucky here in North Carolina.

Unlike the US Supreme Court, our justices aren’t appointed for life. We choose them through judicial elections, meaning voters have a real opportunity to shape the outcome of critical issues that affect all of us.

So, when you go to the polls, or when you fill out your absentee ballot, please remember that the NC Supreme Court justices you choose will exercise more power over you and your family than any other candidate on the ballot.

So, no pressure, but choose wisely!

You can read more election coverage from Locke here ([link removed]) , here ([link removed]) and here ([link removed]) .

Esse quam videri,

Brooke Medina
Editor’s Note

In last week’s Locke Notes, we incorrectly stated that hand-to-eye counts should be done by units (voting sites, precincts and absentee ballots). Hand-to-eye counts are already done by units.


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1) 🦃🦃🦃 An “inflation free” Thanksgiving proves Kamala wrong ([link removed])
* As Thanksgiving approaches, major retailers like Aldi and Walmart are stepping up to offer affordable holiday meals, despite inflationary pressures
+ Aldi is offering a meal for 10 people at under $47
+ While Walmart is promising an “inflation-free” meal for eight at just $7 per person
* This highlights how private enterprise can adapt to economic conditions without government interventions
+ And how consumers can get what they need through competitive pricing and innovation
o For example, Aldi committed to pricing their Thanksgiving basket to below 2019 levels
o And Walmart is offering its Thanksgiving special at stable prices until December 24th
+ These moves are a prime example of how businesses respond to consumer needs when inflation rises
+ Market forces push companies to innovate and adjust pricing strategies to maintain customer loyalty
* In contrast, Kamala Harris’s proposal for grocery price controls is unnecessary and could lead to unintended consequences
+ Price controls often distort markets by disincentivizing production which leads to shortages
o For example, when prices are artificially capped, producers may cut back on supply
o While the private sector naturally regulates prices through competition
* Aldi and Walmart’s initiatives demonstrate that private enterprise is already equipped to address rising costs without government intervention
+ And ultimately, reducing unnecessary government interference and letting market forces work is how to best help consumers

You can read more here ([link removed]) .
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2) 🤔🤔🤔 Do Republicans have a shot at NC CD-1? ([link removed])
* This year, North Carolina plays host to one of the most competitive seats in the Southeast
+ Republicans have long sought to pick up the northeastern Congressional District 1
o Which hasn’t been held by a Republican since 1883
+ Much like other rural areas, this region of the state has been trending in Republicans’ favor over the years
+ However, the Democratic incumbent, Don Davis, has a sizeable financial advantage, higher name ID, and comes across as easy-to-get-along-with
* Nonetheless, the current voting data could indicate that, unless we see massive shift in voting patterns, Republicans may finally win this seat
+ In reviewing early voting data, the pace of voting is behind where it was in 2020
o On the 5th day of early voting this year, there are 30,005 less ballots than on the same day in 2020
+ While the state has seen a decline in early voting from 2020, this decline is notable because registered Democrats are down 31,680 votes
o While registered Republicans are up 2,540
+ While it would be easy to assume this decline is because of fewer people opting for mail-in voting, it’s also Democrats not showing up for early voting
+ Traditionally, Democrats have the highest turnout advantage in the first few days of early voting, while Republicans see an increase closer to Election Day
o Should this trend hold, Republicans could overtake Democrats during early voting this year
* So… why does the decline matter?
+ With the difference in votes is only 4,577 votes, the current decrease in registered Democrats’ voting could be detrimental to their hopes of winning
+ This is particularly true when you look at how unaffiliated voters broke in this district in 2020’s early voting
o Assuming all Democrats voted for the Democratic candidate, this would mean that most unaffiliated voters voted for the Republican candidate
* While there is still a long way to go, and a possibility electoral voting patterns shift again, there will be need be a significant change if Don Davis is going to win reelection this year

You can get the full picture here ([link removed]) .

3) 🗳️🗳️🗳️10/28 data dump: will the Republican early voting advantage hold? ([link removed])
* The big news of early voting so far is that Republicans have jumped out to an unprecedented advantage
+ Which raises the question: can Democrats turn the early voting trend around during the last week?
* The first full week of same-day voter registrations saw Unaffiliated gain the most
+ Republicans had a net gain of 8,922 registrations, compared to 6,333 for Democrats and 6,430 for Unaffiliated
o Unaffiliated is well over its total at the same point in 2020, while both Republicans and Democrats are well behind there’s
+ The total of same-day registrations by affiliation so far is:
o Democrats - 13,392
o Republicans - 15,608
o Unaffiliated - 12,319
* County election boards have accepted 2,820,688 ballots through October 20
+ A plurality of early and mail voters are Republicans, at 34.1%
o Compared to 33.3% for Democrats and 32.1% for Unaffiliated
+ At a similar point in 2020, it was Democrats 40.4%, Republicans 30.0% and Unaffiliated 29.2%
+ This is the first time Republicans have been ahead in total turnout during the early voting period (though slightly behind their 2020 pace)
o But the real story is the dramatic decline in Democratic turnout
# About 350,000 fewer Democrats have voted than at a similar point in 2020
* What’s also interesting is that the youth vote looks very different from 2020
+ So far, youth turnout is down, with only 211,295 18-25 year old voters, compared to 256,332 in 2020
+ And the partisan composition is very different:
o The number of young Democrats has declined by an eye-opening 37,000, compared to 2020
o While Republican young voters actually increased by about 1,600, compared to 2020
* For context, the Real Clear Politics averages show in North Carolina:
+ Republican Donald Trump leading Democrat Kamala Harris 48.6% - 47.8%
+ And Democrat Josh Stein leading Republican Mark Robinson 51.2% - 38.2%

You can dive deeper into the data here ([link removed]) .

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