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WG Discussion Points: Three Indicators We'll Be Looking At First On
Election Night

WG Discussion Points | David Winston

October 18, 2024

Election day is almost here. In a presidential year, there is an
overwhelming amount of data coming in on Election Night from presidential
results in competitive states along with Senate and House races. As we sort
through the data coming in, there are certain metrics we'll be looking at
first as initial indicators of how the night is going:

1.) Margin among independents: Those of you who have been on Discussion
Points for a while know that vote margins among independents are among the
most important metrics we track. In 2016, Trump won independents by 4; in
2020, Biden won this group by 13. Independents will make or break the
election outcome at the presidential and Congressional levels.

2.) Party ID: In the last two election cycles (2020 and 2022), Republicans
have made up 36% of the electorate - an increase from the percentages in
2016 (33%) and 2012 (33%). This gave Republicans a historic party ID
advantage of +3R in the 2022 election, compared to Democrats' party ID
advantage of +1D in 2020 and +3D in 2016. On Election Night, we'll be
looking at what the party ID margin is and whether one party has a
significant advantage over the other, which affects the scale that each
side would have to win among independents. For instance, in 2022,
Republicans had a +3 party ID advantage over Democrats which set the stage
for a Red Wave, but their underperformance among independents (-2) undercut
the gains that could have been achieved given high Republican turnout.

Additionally, we will be looking at the size of the independent voter
group. From 1984 forward, the 2022 midterm election was the high water mark
for independents as a percentage of the electorate (31%). Does that group
sustain this increased level of composition of the electorate?

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