WG Discussion Points: Three Indicators We'll Be Looking At First On Election Night
WG Discussion Points | David Winston
October 18, 2024
Election day is almost here. In a presidential year, there is an overwhelming amount of data coming in on Election Night from presidential results in competitive states along with Senate and House races. As we sort through the data coming in, there are certain metrics we'll be looking at first as initial indicators of how the night is going:
1.) Margin among independents: Those of you who have been on Discussion Points for a while know that vote margins among independents are among the most important metrics we track. In 2016, Trump won independents by 4; in 2020, Biden won this group by 13. Independents will make or break the election outcome at the presidential and Congressional levels.
2.) Party ID: In the last two election cycles (2020 and 2022), Republicans have made up 36% of the electorate - an increase from the percentages in 2016 (33%) and 2012 (33%). This gave Republicans a historic party ID advantage of +3R in the 2022 election, compared to Democrats' party ID advantage of +1D in 2020 and +3D in 2016. On Election Night, we'll be looking at what the party ID margin is and whether one party has a significant advantage over the other, which affects the scale that each side would have to win among independents. For instance, in 2022, Republicans had a +3 party ID advantage over Democrats which set the stage for a Red Wave, but their underperformance among independents (-2) undercut the gains that could have been achieved given high Republican turnout.
Additionally, we will be looking at the size of the independent voter group. From 1984 forward, the 2022 midterm election was the high water mark for independents as a percentage of the electorate (31%). Does that group sustain this increased level of composition of the electorate?
