Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.
Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the national debt crisis, the electoral math of swing states, and perspectives on gender equality.

Edited by Sutton
Houser and James Desio

Did a friend send you this email? Subscribe <[link removed]> today! For inquiries,
email [email protected] <[link removed]>.
1. Big Problem: Rising National Debt
Topline: As the presidential election nears the finish line, AEI’s Michael Strain points out <[link removed]> that neither campaign is addressing a pivotal economic issue: the rapidly growing national debt. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 122.4% by 2034.
The Problem: Strain explains that the deficit isn't due to insufficient tax revenue but excessive government spending. By 2034, the CBO calculates that tax revenue will be 18% of GDP, while government spending will reach 24.9%.

What’s at Stake: He warns that rising federal debt is undermining
American prosperity. A growing federal deficit diminishes private investment, which in turn limits capital, lowers wages, decreases productivity, and likely reduces workforce participation.
2. Electoral Math: Swing States
Topline: As both campaigns hit the road after the vice-presidential debate, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt analyzes <[link removed]> the key “blue wall” and “red wall” states that will be the focus in the final weeks of the election. Once solidly Democratic or Republican, these states are now competitive. 

Breakdown: He notes that the blue wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) and red wall states (Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina) hold 44 and 43 electoral votes, respectively.


-

Blue wall states have backed every Democratic candidate since 1992, except for 2016, when they supported Donald Trump.

-

Red wall states typically supported Republicans over the past 40 years. Most recently, North Carolina went for Barack Obama in 2008, and Arizona and Georgia favored Joe Biden in 2020.




The Game Plan: While both campaigns currently lead in their respective swing states, Stirewalt explains that neither campaign can afford to lose one of these states. At the moment, Kamala Harris’s narrowest polling advantage is in Wisconsin, while Trump’s narrowest advantage is in North Carolina.




“The key difference between the two walls is that Vice President Kamala Harris can win the presidency without winning any of the red wall states.” 
—Chris Stirewalt
3. Gender Advantage: Men or Women?
Topline: AEI’s Daniel Cox highlights <[link removed]> a significant partisan divide on the question of gender advantage in society. While 68% of Democrats believe men have the advantage, only 32% of Republicans agree. Notably, roughly half of Republicans say neither gender has an advantage.

Breakdown: Cox also finds differences by gender and age:


-

56% of women think men have it easier, compared to just 38% of men.

-

Among young men (age 18-29), 22% believe women have the advantage, while only 11% of older men (65+) share that view.







“Today, fewer Americans believe that men and women are treated equally; rather, more believe that one side or
another has an unfair advantage.” 
—Daniel Cox
Last but Not Least . . .
The American Growth Imperative <[link removed]>
Iranian Ballistic Missile Attack <[link removed]>
Thanks for reading. We will be back with more data next Thursday!
For more data insights, subscribe today <[link removed]>.

Email us <[link removed]> with data questions or ideas.
View online <[[[link removed]]]>  |   Ensure delivery <[link removed]>  |   Subscribe <[link removed]>


American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036
202.862.5800  |  www.aei.org <[link removed]>


<[link removed]>   <[link removed]>   <[link removed]>   <[link removed]>    <[link removed]>  
<[link removed]> Donate to AEI <[link removed]> in support of defending and promoting freedom, opportunity, and enterprise.
This message is for: [email protected] <[email protected]> | Manage preferences <[link removed]> or Unsubscribe <[link removed]>

<!-- This is a comment -->