Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the national debt crisis, the electoral math of swing states, and perspectives on gender equality.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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1. Big Problem: Rising National Debt

Topline: As the presidential election nears the finish line, AEI’s Michael Strain points out that neither campaign is addressing a pivotal economic issue: the rapidly growing national debt. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 122.4% by 2034.

The Problem: Strain explains that the deficit isn't due to insufficient tax revenue but excessive government spending. By 2034, the CBO calculates that tax revenue will be 18% of GDP, while government spending will reach 24.9%.

What’s at Stake: He warns that rising federal debt is undermining American prosperity. A growing federal deficit diminishes private investment, which in turn limits capital, lowers wages, decreases productivity, and likely reduces workforce participation.

More on the National Debt

2. Electoral Math: Swing States

Topline: As both campaigns hit the road after the vice-presidential debate, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt analyzes the key “blue wall” and “red wall” states that will be the focus in the final weeks of the election. Once solidly Democratic or Republican, these states are now competitive.

Breakdown: He notes that the blue wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) and red wall states (Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina) hold 44 and 43 electoral votes, respectively.

Blue wall states have backed every Democratic candidate since 1992, except for 2016, when they supported Donald Trump.
Red wall states typically supported Republicans over the past 40 years. Most recently, North Carolina went for Barack Obama in 2008, and Arizona and Georgia favored Joe Biden in 2020.

The Game Plan: While both campaigns currently lead in their respective swing states, Stirewalt explains that neither campaign can afford to lose one of these states. At the moment, Kamala Harris’s narrowest polling advantage is in Wisconsin, while Trump’s narrowest advantage is in North Carolina.

“The key difference between the two walls is that Vice President Kamala Harris can win the presidency without winning any of the red wall states.”

—Chris Stirewalt

See Swing State Analysis

3. Gender Advantage: Men or Women?

Topline: AEI’s Daniel Cox highlights a significant partisan divide on the question of gender advantage in society. While 68% of Democrats believe men have the advantage, only 32% of Republicans agree. Notably, roughly half of Republicans say neither gender has an advantage.

Breakdown: Cox also finds differences by gender and age:

56% of women think men have it easier, compared to just 38% of men.
Among young men (age 18-29), 22% believe women have the advantage, while only 11% of older men (65+) share that view.

“Today, fewer Americans believe that men and women are treated equally; rather, more believe that one side or another has an unfair advantage.”

—Daniel Cox