From Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control <[email protected]>
Subject Iran Watch Newsletter: September 2024
Date September 30, 2024 12:56 PM
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[1]

September 30, 2024

This month’s newsletter features a new episode of Iran Watch Listen, a
podcast by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. We sat down with
Hanna Notte and Jim Lamson of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation
Studies to discuss the history of Iran and Russia’s military relationship,
how it has changed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,
and areas where both countries might benefit from deeper cooperation in the
future.

The newsletter also includes profiles of a network supplying dual-use goods
to Iran’s defense industry, as well as news about the launch of a satellite
on an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-built rocket, the unveiling
of a new ballistic missile, and the transfer of close-range missiles to
Russia. Additions to the Iran Watch library include official statements and
documents from the meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Board of Governors, U.S. and allied statements regarding Iran’s missile
transfers to Russia, and other recent sanctions on Iran.

Was this email forwarded to you? [2]Sign up to receive the newsletter in
your inbox, or [3]view the newsletter in your browser.

PUBLICATIONS

[4]

A video circulating on social media showed Shahed (Geranium) drones in
production at a Russian factory.

Interviews and Podcasts | [5]The Past, Present, and Future of Iran-Russia
Military Cooperation

For several decades, Iran-Russia military cooperation was characterized by
a patron-client dynamic in which assistance largely flowed in one
direction, with Russia occasionally helping Iran. But, as our guests Hanna
Notte and Jim Lamson explain, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in
2022 marked a turning point. Since then, the two countries have deepened
ties in pre-existing areas and found new fields in which to work together,
and the current relationship is likely to stick around even after the war
in Ukraine ends.

[6]LISTEN TO THE PODCAST

[7]

A "pin dome" from the Iranian nuclear archive documents. (Credit: Institute
for Science and International Security)

Articles and Reports | [8]Iran's Nuclear Timetable: The Weapon Potential

Thanks to its growing stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and
[9]its increased deployment of advanced centrifuges, Iran’s breakout
timeline continues to fall. The country has reached the point at which,
within about one week, it might be able to amass enough weapons-grade
uranium for five fission weapons. For that uranium to pose a nuclear weapon
threat, however, it would have to be processed further, and the other
components of a weapon would have to be ready to receive the processed
uranium. 

[10]READ THE REPORT

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

In March, the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned Germany-based
procurement agent [11]Maziar Karimi and several of his companies for
supplying epoxy resin and other items to Iran’s defense industry, including
its ballistic missile program.

[12]Mazixon GmbH and Co. KG

A Germany-based company specializing in industrial machinery; used by
Karimi to facilitate procurement for the [13]IRGC Aerospace Force
Self-Sufficiency Jihad Organization and its ballistic missile program.

[14]LEARN MORE

[15]Mazaya Alardh Aldhabia LLC

An Oman-based construction company; collaborated with Mazixon GmbH and Co
KG to ship antennas, epoxy resin, and other items to Iran for its defense
industry.

[16]LEARN MORE

[17]Tit Uluslararasi Nakliyat Deri Tekstil Gida Sanayi Ve Ticaret Limited
Sirketi

A Turkey-based freight transportation company; facilitated the shipment of
epoxy resin and other items to Iran for Karimi.

[18]LEARN MORE

IN THE NEWS

[19]

Iran’s Jihad missile, which resembles the liquid-fuel Qiam. (Credit: Tasnim
News Agency)

[20]Iran Unveils "Jihad" Missile with Enhanced Capabilities | Iran
International

September 22, 2024: Iran unveiled a new ballistic missile called Jihad
during a military parade marking Sacred Defense week. Developed by the IRGC
Aerospace Force, Jihad is an optimized version of the Qiam liquid-fueled
ballistic missile with a range of 1,000 kilometers and a guided warhead.
Iran also displayed a launch vehicle that can carry two missiles rather
than one.

[21]Iran Says it Successfully Launched a Satellite in its Program
Criticized by West over Missile Fears | Associated Press

September 14, 2024: Iran launched the Chamran-1 satellite into a
550-kilometer orbit using its Ghaem-100 rocket, the second successful
launch of the rocket in 2024. The three-stage, solid-fuel rocket was built
by the IRGC and launched from a mobile launcher near the city of Shahroud.
The satellite, whose purpose was to test orbital maneuvering technologies,
was built by the Aerospace Research Institute.

[22]U.S. Says Russia Received Missiles from Iran, Piles on Sanctions |
Reuters

September 10, 2024: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Russia
had received Fath-360 close-range ballistic missiles from Iran. In response
to the transfer, the United States imposed further restrictions on Iran Air
and announced sanctions targeting 10 individuals and nine entities,
including Russian-flagged vessels allegedly involved in delivering weapons
from Iran to Russia. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom also pledged
sanctions on Iran Air. Iran denied supplying the missiles to Russia.

FROM THE LIBRARY

At its quarterly meeting, the IAEA Board of Governors discussed Iran’s most
recent nuclear advances as well as the lack of progress in resolving
several outstanding safeguards issues.
* Ahead of the meeting, the IAEA director general circulated two reports
on [23]verification and monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program and the
country’s [24]implementation of NPT safeguards – August 29.
* The [25]United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom again
threatened to push for a comprehensive report on outstanding issues in the
coming months if Iran does not improve its cooperation with the Agency –
September 11.

On September 10, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken [26]confirmed
intelligence findings that Russia had received hundreds of close-range
ballistic missiles from Iran.
* The U.S. Department of the Treasury [27]announced sanctions on entities
that it said facilitated the transfer – September 10.
* France, Germany, and the United Kingdom [28]issued a statement
promising to sanction Iran’s national airline Iran Air and cancel bilateral
air services agreements with Iran – September 10.
* At the UN Security Council, Blinken [29]drew a sharp distinction
between Western military support for Ukraine versus Iran and North Korea’s
support for Russia – September 14.

The United States and allied governments announced more targeted sanctions
against Iran.
* The United Kingdom [30]designated IRGC Quds Force Unit 700 and several
individuals thought to be involved in arming Iran’s regional proxies –
September 2.
* On the second anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini, [31]Australia,
[32]Canada, and the [33]United States imposed sanctions on individuals
committing human rights abuses in Iran – September 18.
* The U.S. Department of the Treasury [34]sanctioned a network smuggling
oil for the IRGC Quds Force and Hizballah – September 25.

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2024 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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