It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Joshua Lott/The Washington Post via Getty Images

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

THE PATHS TO WINNING
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

There’s no shortage of swirling dynamics at play this election season, but for a brief moment this week, all eyes were on the decision of one man.

On Monday, Nebraska state Sen. Mike McDonnell announced he will block efforts by some Republicans ([link removed]) to change the way his state awards its electoral votes.

The state currently has five electoral votes. Two go to the winner of the popular vote, and each of the state’s three congressional districts awards its own electoral vote.

Republican candidates have won the popular vote in Nebraska in every election since 1968. ([link removed]) In 2020, President Joe Biden managed to win an electoral vote from one of the state’s congressional districts. Fast-forward four years and former President Donald Trump and his allies wanted state lawmakers to rewrite their electoral process and award all five of its electoral votes to the winner of the state’s popular vote (i.e. to him).

In this razor-thin election, that single electoral vote in Nebraska — from its purple second congressional district — could determine the winner in at least one election scenario.

This is a perfect reason to start talking about the 2024 electoral math, and some potential paths to 270 electoral votes it takes to win.

To start

Let’s use the following baseline from our friends at the Cook Political Report ([link removed]) on where we are right now.
* For Democrats: There are 191 electoral votes from “solid” blue states. Add 34 for the “likely Democratic” state and you get 225 electoral votes, the Democratic starting point
* For Republicans: There are 148 electoral votes from “solid” red states. Add 71 for the “likely Republican” and you get 219 electoral votes, the Republican starting point.

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is ranked “lean Democrat” per Cook, but for today, we’re including it as a toss-up.

The key states left

This leaves seven states and the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska to determine the winner. We list them below, with their electoral vote totals.
* Arizona: 11
* Georgia: 16
* Michigan: 15
* Nebraska’s 2nd District: 1
* Nevada: 6
* North Carolina: 16
* Pennsylvania: 19
* Wisconsin: 10

Now let’s look at five key potential scenarios, which we have nicknamed for ease.

1. The “blue wall,” featuring Nebraska

The scenario:
* Harris wins: PA, MI, WI. 44 electoral votes.
* Trump wins: GA, NC, AZ, NV. 49 electoral votes

The vote tally: Harris, 269, Trump, 268 — with Nebraska-02 deciding it all.

Let’s imagine that Vice President Kamala Harris wins the so-called “blue wall” states in the Northeast and Midwest that have voted mostly Democratic this century. (They voted for Obama twice, then Trump, then Biden.)

Those are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Together they are 44 electoral votes.

Trump in this scenario wins Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Together they are 49 electoral votes.

Conclusion: In this scenario, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District could give Harris the election, nudging her to 270. But if that district goes to Trump, we would have a 269-269 tie, sending the election to the House of Representatives, where each state would get one vote and Republicans have the upper hand.

2. Comfort zones

The scenario:
* Harris wins: PA, MI, WI, NV. 50 electoral votes.
* Trump wins: GA, NC, AZ, NE-2. 44 electoral votes.

The vote tally: Harris wins with 275 over Trump’s 263.

What if all swing states, not just the “blue wall,” return to regular voting patterns? Meaning, they vote in their historic comfort zones — the way they have usually voted this century. If they do this, Harris wins.

Here, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina would all vote Republican, for Trump. Each of these states has only voted for a Democrat for president once this century. Also voting Republican would be Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which has voted for the GOP candidate five times and a Democrat twice.

But Nevada (which last voted for a Republican in 2004) would vote Democratic, for Harris.

Add Nevada to Harris’ blue wall states and that’s 50 electoral votes total. For Trump, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nebraska’s 2nd district would bring in 44 electoral votes.

Conclusion: If states go with their 21st-century patterns so far, Harris wins.
From Trump’s perspective, the key would be to break that pattern and flip at least one of these states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Nevada.

3. Trump gets Pennsylvania

The scenario:
* Trump wins: PA, GA, NC, AZ. 62 electoral votes.
* Harris wins: MI, WI, NV and NE-02. 32 electoral votes.

The vote tally: Trump wins, 281-257

If Trump wins Pennsylvania and the states where he is currently leading, he wins. Harris would need the rest of the blue wall, plus at least one traditionally red state, to overcome the loss of Pennsylvania.

Let’s focus on the state with the largest chunk of electoral chips on the table here. Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are pivotal, especially for Harris.

The state remains a toss up ([link removed]) — either party could win.

Let’s imagine Trump wins it and the other states where he is leading now. That would mean Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, or 62 electoral votes.

And if Harris wins where she is leading (Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada), and we give her Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District as well, that’s 32 electoral votes.

Conclusion: If Trump wins Pennsylvania, his chances of winning the presidency increase dramatically. Harris would need to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and a traditionally red state in order to win in this scenario.

4. A big night for Trump

The scenario:
* Harris wins: MI, WI. 25 electoral votes.
* Trump wins: NC, GA, PA, AZ, NV and NE-02. 69 electoral votes

The vote tally: Trump wins, 288 to 250.

In the final days and hours, big elections can often swing in the same direction across several states. So let’s imagine a near best case scenario for Trump.

He wins all the closest states. That’s North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania , Arizona, Nevada and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, or 69 electoral votes.

Harris gets the two states where she has a slightly larger lead, Michigan and Wisconsin. Together, they are 25 electoral votes.

Conclusion: If things break for Trump, including in Pennsylvania, then he could open up a large Electoral College lead.

5. A big night for Harris

What about the reverse scenario? If Harris gets the last-minute momentum?

The scenario:
* Harris wins: NC, PA, MI, WI, NV and NE-02, 67 electoral votes
* Trump wins: AZ, GA. 27 electoral votes

The vote tally: Harris wins, 292-246.

Harris can open up a big lead herself by swinging “blue wall” states, plus one other swing state and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Let’s imagine she gets the blueish swing states and those that are less than a point for Trump.

That means Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, and North Carolina — where Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson is in a searing spotlight ([link removed]) following a CNN report ([link removed]) about his past comments on a pornography website’s message board. Together, that’s 67 electoral votes.

Trump would get Arizona and Georgia, together worth 27 electoral votes.

Conclusion: Watch the next few weeks to see if there is any movement in polling. Harris still has the ability to grow. And Trump is determined to block that.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: Harris and Trump ramp up efforts ([link removed]) to win over voters in critical swing states.
* One Big Question: What do the campaign strategies look like six weeks out from Election Day? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Jasmine Wright of NOTUS discuss. ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: Congressional leaders reach a deal to avoid a government shutdown ([link removed]) before November’s election.
* Perspectives: An analyst on the economic effects ([link removed]) of President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act so far.

A PARENT SHARES A LINGERING ELECTION CONCERN
[link removed]
Watch the clip in the player above.
By Steff Staples, @steff_staples ([link removed])
Associate Social Media Producer

Casey Kuhn, @CaseyAtTheDesk ([link removed])
Digital Video Producer

In the run-up to the 2024 election, our own Judy Woodruff moderated an hourlong town hall ([link removed]) with more than 50 Wisconsin voters.

They shared their hopes, fears and worries ahead of November’s vote.

One parent, Danielle Scampini Linn, shared a concern that has lingered with her every day.

"What's scary is the idea that I think every single day when I drop my kids at school, 'Will I see them come home or will someone come into the school and shoot them?'" she said.

Linn, a Democrat, said right-wing rhetoric has characterized LGBTQ+ events like “Drag Queen Story Hour” as "scary," which is in part causing parents and voters to lose focus on what would actually keep kids safe.

"When I put my kids to bed at night, I'm not afraid of Drag Queen Story Hour. I'm afraid of what's actually going to happen to them," she said of her children. "I'm afraid of what the planet will look like in the next 20 years because we're not taking care of it."

For two years, Woodruff and her team of producers set out to better understand the growing political polarization in America, filing dozens of reports for the PBS News Hour in her “America at a Crossroads” series. ([link removed]) The reporting project has explored where Americans stand apart — and where they stand together — on the issues shaping the nation today.
More from Crossroads:
* Watch: Judy Woodruff’s full conversation with Wisconsin voters ([link removed]) on how America is divided today.
* Behind the Scenes: An inside look on how Woodruff prepared for the town hall discussion. ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: How political polarization is connected to a declining trust in news media. ([link removed])

THIS YEAR’S NEW ‘I VOTED’ STICKERS
Photos courtesy of different U.S. jurisdictions. Image by Joshua Barajas/PBS News
By Steff Staples, @steff_staples ([link removed])
Associate Social Media Producer

Shyla Duff
Associate Social Media Producer

Dan Cooney, @IAmDanCooney ([link removed])
Social Media Producer/Coordinator

One of the best parts about voting — other than doing your civic duty — is leaving a polling place with an "I Voted" sticker.

The popular Election Day freebies, when available ([link removed]) , look different in different cities and states. Many jurisdictions put a call out to voters to design the stickers themselves.

PBS News surveyed some of the winning 2024 designs in sticker contests across the country. From hirsute creatures ([link removed]) to mythical beasts ([link removed]) , the contests generated one-of-a-kind designs — and when it came to winners, the more unique, the better. (Remember the spider-monster ([link removed]) drawn by the 14-year-old in Ulster County, New York?)

When Johnson County, Iowa, announced an online contest to design a “I Voted” sticker for its some 150,000 residents, Sarah Alward and her two sons both jumped at the chance to submit designs.

"I love the [‘I Voted’] sticker,” said Alward, 43. “I wear it for as long as I can. If I'm wearing a jacket, I put it on my jacket so that I can wear it for longer.”

Beyond the flair, jurisdictions hold these contests to inspire future voters and encourage civic engagement. It’s also a way to show some state pride.

Alward and her 11-year-old son, Cameron, submitted stickers that featured Iowa’s state bird, the eastern goldfinch. Both ended up winning their respective divisions in the contest.

Cameron said he and his mother took the “less boring” approach with their designs and ditched the usual red, white and blue theme. The goldfinch in his sticker design is peacefully perched while two tornadoes roar in the background.

The two winners from this year’s I Voted sticker contest in Johnson County, Iowa. On the left is the winner in the adult division, while the youth division is on the right. Both sticker designs feature the eastern goldfinch, the state bird.
Photos courtesy of Johnson County, Iowa

Michigan hosted its first-ever contest this year, with one of the winning designs already circulating on social media. First-grader Jane Hynous' drawing of a werewolf ripping its shirt off (a nod to a popular meme ([link removed]) ) caught the attention of comedian John Oliver, who joked on his show "Last Week Tonight" that he would "commit voter fraud" ([link removed]) for the sticker.

WE’D LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOU!

Plan on voting? Show us your “I Voted” stickers, adorned with a unicorn or not. When you vote, send us photos of you and your sticker to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) . We’ll share a few of them by Election Day.

Photo by Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images

By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

Though several jurisdictions have toyed with variations of their “I Voted” stickers over the years, one state sticks out for its super direct design.

A red circle with white letters that say, “I Voted.” That’s it.

The no-frills design was passed into state law in 1993, stipulating that the election officials could provide stickers that contain the “I Voted” phrasing “and nothing more."

Our question: Which state does this particular “I Voted” sticker belong to?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Who received Scientific American’s first-ever endorsement for president?

The answer: Joe Biden. ([link removed]) The magazine didn’t offer a presidential endorsement until 175 years into the publication’s history.

Congratulations to our winners: Elinor Fillion and Brenda Radford!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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