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It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.
THE PATHS TO WINNING
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews
Correspondent
There’s no shortage of swirling dynamics at play this election season, but for a brief moment this week, all eyes were on the decision of one man.
On Monday, Nebraska state Sen. Mike McDonnell announced he will block efforts by some Republicans to change the way his state awards its electoral votes.
The state currently has five electoral votes. Two go to the winner of the popular vote, and each of the state’s three congressional districts awards its own electoral vote.
Republican candidates have won the popular vote in Nebraska in every election since 1968. In 2020, President Joe Biden managed to win an electoral vote from one of the state’s congressional districts. Fast-forward four years and former President Donald Trump and his allies wanted state lawmakers to rewrite their electoral process and award all five of its electoral votes to the winner of the state’s popular vote (i.e. to him).
In this razor-thin election, that single electoral vote in Nebraska — from its purple second congressional district — could determine the winner in at least one election scenario.
This is a perfect reason to start talking about the 2024 electoral math, and some potential paths to 270 electoral votes it takes to win.
To start
Let’s use the following baseline from our friends at the Cook Political Report on where we are right now.
- For Democrats: There are 191 electoral votes from “solid” blue states. Add 34 for the “likely Democratic” state and you get 225 electoral votes, the Democratic starting point
- For Republicans: There are 148 electoral votes from “solid” red states. Add 71 for the “likely Republican” and you get 219 electoral votes, the Republican starting point.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is ranked “lean Democrat” per Cook, but for today, we’re including it as a toss-up.
The key states left
This leaves seven states and the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska to determine the winner. We list them below, with their electoral vote totals.
- Arizona: 11
- Georgia: 16
- Michigan: 15
- Nebraska’s 2nd District: 1
- Nevada: 6
- North Carolina: 16
- Pennsylvania: 19
- Wisconsin: 10
Now let’s look at five key potential scenarios, which we have nicknamed for ease.
1. The “blue wall,” featuring Nebraska
The scenario:
- Harris wins: PA, MI, WI. 44 electoral votes.
- Trump wins: GA, NC, AZ, NV. 49 electoral votes
The vote tally: Harris, 269, Trump, 268 — with Nebraska-02 deciding it all.
Let’s imagine that Vice President Kamala Harris wins the so-called “blue wall” states in the Northeast and Midwest that have voted mostly Democratic this century. (They voted for Obama twice, then Trump, then Biden.)
Those are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Together they are 44 electoral votes.
Trump in this scenario wins Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Together they are 49 electoral votes.
Conclusion: In this scenario, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District could give Harris the election, nudging her to 270. But if that district goes to Trump, we would have a 269-269 tie, sending the election to the House of Representatives, where each state would get one vote and Republicans have the upper hand.
2. Comfort zones
The scenario:
- Harris wins: PA, MI, WI, NV. 50 electoral votes.
- Trump wins: GA, NC, AZ, NE-2. 44 electoral votes.
The vote tally: Harris wins with 275 over Trump’s 263.
What if all swing states, not just the “blue wall,” return to regular voting patterns? Meaning, they vote in their historic comfort zones — the way they have usually voted this century. If they do this, Harris wins.
Here, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina would all vote Republican, for Trump. Each of these states has only voted for a Democrat for president once this century. Also voting Republican would be Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which has voted for the GOP candidate five times and a Democrat twice.
But Nevada (which last voted for a Republican in 2004) would vote Democratic, for Harris.
Add Nevada to Harris’ blue wall states and that’s 50 electoral votes total. For Trump, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nebraska’s 2nd district would bring in 44 electoral votes.
Conclusion: If states go with their 21st-century patterns so far, Harris wins.
From Trump’s perspective, the key would be to break that pattern and flip at least one of these states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Nevada.
3. Trump gets Pennsylvania
The scenario:
- Trump wins: PA, GA, NC, AZ. 62 electoral votes.
- Harris wins: MI, WI, NV and NE-02. 32 electoral votes.
The vote tally: Trump wins, 281-257
If Trump wins Pennsylvania and the states where he is currently leading, he wins. Harris would need the rest of the blue wall, plus at least one traditionally red state, to overcome the loss of Pennsylvania.
Let’s focus on the state with the largest chunk of electoral chips on the table here. Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are pivotal, especially for Harris.
The state remains a toss up — either party could win.
Let’s imagine Trump wins it and the other states where he is leading now. That would mean Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, or 62 electoral votes.
And if Harris wins where she is leading (Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada), and we give her Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District as well, that’s 32 electoral votes.
Conclusion: If Trump wins Pennsylvania, his chances of winning the presidency increase dramatically. Harris would need to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and a traditionally red state in order to win in this scenario.
4. A big night for Trump
The scenario:
- Harris wins: MI, WI. 25 electoral votes.
- Trump wins: NC, GA, PA, AZ, NV and NE-02. 69 electoral votes
The vote tally: Trump wins, 288 to 250.
In the final days and hours, big elections can often swing in the same direction across several states. So let’s imagine a near best case scenario for Trump.
He wins all the closest states. That’s North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania , Arizona, Nevada and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, or 69 electoral votes.
Harris gets the two states where she has a slightly larger lead, Michigan and Wisconsin. Together, they are 25 electoral votes.
Conclusion: If things break for Trump, including in Pennsylvania, then he could open up a large Electoral College lead.
5. A big night for Harris
What about the reverse scenario? If Harris gets the last-minute momentum?
The scenario:
- Harris wins: NC, PA, MI, WI, NV and NE-02, 67 electoral votes
- Trump wins: AZ, GA. 27 electoral votes
The vote tally: Harris wins, 292-246.
Harris can open up a big lead herself by swinging “blue wall” states, plus one other swing state and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
Let’s imagine she gets the blueish swing states and those that are less than a point for Trump.
That means Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, and North Carolina — where Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson is in a searing spotlight following a CNN report about his past comments on a pornography website’s message board. Together, that’s 67 electoral votes.
Trump would get Arizona and Georgia, together worth 27 electoral votes.
Conclusion: Watch the next few weeks to see if there is any movement in polling. Harris still has the ability to grow. And Trump is determined to block that.
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