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WG Discussion Points: The Electoral College Trigger

WG Discussion Points | David Winston

September 13, 2024

One of the questions we are asked the most is about why polls were wrong in
the 2016 election that saw the "surprise" win for Trump. Polling averages
had shown significant leads for Clinton, but the race tightened during
October; polls not in the field toward the end missed the movement toward
Trump, with the final popular vote margin being 2.1%. To some extent, many
of the polls in the fall of 2016 weren't wrong, as much as there was a lack
of consideration for what can happen in the Electoral College when the
margin is under 3%.

As we approach another close election, all scenarios should be considered
if the current trajectory continues. Today's Real Clear Politics average
shows a Harris lead of 1.5% with 538's average at 2.6%. Most of the
political discussion is about Harris leading, but both of these polling
averages are within the 3% range.

[2]Read more

On Thursday, Chairman David Avella and Former Clinton Advisor Doug Schoen
joined Fox News Channel's Harris Faulkner on The Faulkner Focus to discuss
what appears to be the Harris-Walz campaign's strategy of avoiding the
press, and VP Harris' flip-flopping on the issues.

Watch it here:

[3]video

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