WG Discussion Points: The Electoral College Trigger
WG Discussion Points | David Winston
September 13, 2024
One of the questions we are asked the most is about why polls were wrong in the 2016 election that saw the "surprise" win for Trump. Polling averages had shown significant leads for Clinton, but the race tightened during October; polls not in the field toward the end missed the movement toward Trump, with the final popular vote margin being 2.1%. To some extent, many of the polls in the fall of 2016 weren't wrong, as much as there was a lack of consideration for what can happen in the Electoral College when the margin is under 3%.
As we approach another close election, all scenarios should be considered if the current trajectory continues. Today's Real Clear Politics average shows a Harris lead of 1.5% with 538's average at 2.6%. Most of the political discussion is about Harris leading, but both of these polling averages are within the 3% range.
