Featuring Paul Heer, Shelley Rigger, & Michael Swaine

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Heading Toward War? Reevaluating Taiwan’s Status Quo
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The U.S. government often asserts the need to maintain the long-standing status quo with China regarding Taiwan, presumably centered on understandings reached between Washington and Beijing at the time of their normalization. However, a growing number of observers argue that the Taiwan status quo is severely eroding or no longer exists. To support this view, they point, among other things, to basic changes in the views of Taiwan’s populace regarding unification, increased Chinese military threats to the island, the violation of Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula in Hong Kong, and various U.S. statements and actions that supposedly contravene basic tenets of the One China policy.

What is the “status quo” over Taiwan, and is it in fact stable or eroding? What are the major underlying forces that will determine whether the Taiwan situation moves toward conflict or stability? What needs to be done to reinforce and sustain the latter outcome?

August 2024

20
12:00 PM ET
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Join us for a timely and important discussion with:

Paul Heer

Paul Heer is a Nonresident Senior Fellow for the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Heer served for 30 years as a specialist on East Asian affairs in the US intelligence community, including as a member of the senior analytic service at the CIA and the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia from 2007-2015.

Shelley Rigger

Shelley Rigger is the Brown Professor of East Asian Politics at Davidson College. She has written several books on Taiwan, including "The Tiger Leading the Dragon: How Taiwan Propelled China’s Economic Rise" (2021), and "Why Taiwan Matters: Small Island, Global Powerhouse" (2011). Rigger also serves as a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Michael Swaine (Moderator)

Michael D. Swaine, a Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute’s East Asia program, is one of the most prominent American scholars of Chinese security studies. He comes to QI from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he worked for nearly twenty years as a senior fellow specializing in Chinese defense and foreign policy.

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