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The U.S. government often asserts the need to maintain the long-standing status quo with China regarding Taiwan, presumably centered on understandings reached between Washington and Beijing at the time of their normalization. However, a growing number of observers argue that the Taiwan status quo is severely eroding or no longer exists. To support this view, they point, among other things, to basic changes in the views of Taiwan’s populace regarding unification, increased Chinese military threats to the island, the violation of Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula in Hong Kong, and various U.S. statements and actions that supposedly contravene basic tenets of the One China policy.
What is the “status quo” over Taiwan, and is it in fact stable or eroding? What are the major underlying forces that will determine whether the Taiwan situation moves toward conflict or stability? What needs to be done to reinforce and sustain the latter outcome?
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