What the expiration of the ceasefire between the Colombian government and the ELN means for President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace policy.


** Weekly InSight
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August 9, 2024

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This week, we analyzed ([link removed]) what the expiration of the ceasefire between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN), the country’s last guerrilla group, means for President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace policy, aimed at ending the country’s six-decade old civil conflict.

Though talks with the ELN are in crisis, the Colombian government announced ([link removed]) that it would open talks with the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia – AGC), the country’s most powerful drug trafficking organization. But legal wranglings around the group’s political status will pose problems.

Rounding off our Colombia coverage this week, we reviewed ([link removed]) the effect that Petro’s Total Peace policy has had on criminal and violence dynamics in the country, two years after he assumed office.

We also explored ([link removed]) what a record-breaking fentanyl seizure on the US borders says about Mexico’s synthetic drugs trade, and we assessed ([link removed]) the rise of ketamine in Chile’s synthetic drug market.

This and more below.


** Featured
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** Colombia’s Total Peace Hangs by a Thread After Ceasefire With ELN Expires ([link removed])
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Peace negotiations with Colombia’s last true guerrilla insurgency are on the verge of collapse after the August 3 expiration of a ceasefire between the government and the ELN.

The bilateral ceasefire, in effect for the past year, ended after the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN) rejected government offers to discuss a renewal.

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See more coverage from Colombia > ([link removed])


** News Analysis
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** Ketamine Trafficking Rising in Chile’s Thriving Synthetic Drugs Market ([link removed])
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Record seizures of ketamine in Chile show how the drug is making its way into the country’s already extensive synthetic drug market …
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** US Customs Makes Historic Fentanyl Seizure ([link removed])
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A massive seizure of the drug suggests that fentanyl production is thriving in Mexico, despite a ban by certain criminal groups under significant US pressure …
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** Two Years On, Colombia’s ‘Total Peace’ Brings More Conflict ([link removed])
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Two years into President Gustavo Petro’s administration, Total Peace, the Colombian government’s flagship policy to end the …
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** Colombia Government Announces Peace Dialogue With AGC ([link removed])
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In a move that could potentially turn Colombia’s criminal landscape on its head, the government has announced it will open …


** Impact
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In an interview with Radio Canada ([link removed]) , InSight Crime co-director Jeremy McDermott provided an analysis of the criminal landscape in Venezuela one week after the country’s disputed elections.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro presides over a model of hybrid criminal governance, benefitting from alliances with criminal groups. “He has essentially created a system of fiefdoms across the country, partnering with criminal groups in order to access the rents they manage,” McDermott said.

InSight Crime continues to provide comprehensive analysis of organized crime dynamics in Venezuela through the Venezuela Organized Crime Observatory ([link removed]*1t56y9x*_gcl_au*MTExODU2MDA0Mi4xNzIyNTIxNTg0*_ga*MjQ5Mzk4MjQ4LjE3MDY4OTA5MzE.*_ga_DDHRSLDESP*MTcyMzEyMjU2MC4yNDkuMS4xNzIzMTIzNDc0LjAuMC4w) .

Read the article > ([link removed])

Read more about Venezuela’s hybrid criminal state > ([link removed])


** This Week's Criminal Profile: National Liberation Army (Ejército Nacional de Liberación – ELN)
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The ceasefire agreement between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (Ejército Nacional de Liberación – ELN) came to an end on August 4. This has dealt a potentially mortal blow to the already fragile peace negotiations between the two parties, and leaves President Gustavo Petro’s flagship Total Peace policy hanging by a thread.

The ELN, Colombia’s last guerrilla group, has been accused of violating the ceasefire 39 times over the past year through acts of violence and kidnappings. Parallel peace talks between the government and ELN’s dissident factions like the Comuneros del Sur may cause fractures within the group.
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Read our ELN profile > ([link removed])
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Read our Colombia coverage > ([link removed])


** Multimedia
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August 3, 2024

#FARC #ColombiaPeace

"Between 2023 and 2024, a series of TikTok videos began to emerge. They showed life inside the armed groups of Colombia as a tempting option for young people with the intention of recruiting them."

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** Trending Topic: Total Peace in Colombia
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The end of the ceasefire agreement between the ELN and the Colombian government may dash President Gustavo Petro’s hopes of reaching an agreement that would see the guerrilla group lay down its arms. This is the central process for his Total Peace policy.

However, as parallel talks with dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) continue and a new dialogue opens with the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AGC), the country’s largest drug trafficking organization, some deals may still be possible.

InSight Crime continues to provide authoritative coverage of Colombia’s peace process. To find out more, read our analysis below or explore our Total Peace series ([link removed]) .
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** From Total to Partial Peace: Colombia’s Talks with Crime Groups Fragment ([link removed])
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** Why Colombia’s Second Marquetalia May Finally Be Ready for Peace ([link removed])
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