Weekly InSight

This week, we analyzed what the expiration of the ceasefire between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN), the country’s last guerrilla group, means for President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace policy, aimed at ending the country’s six-decade old civil conflict.


Though talks with the ELN are in crisis, the Colombian government announced that it would open talks with the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia – AGC), the country’s most powerful drug trafficking organization. But legal wranglings around the group’s political status will pose problems.


Rounding off our Colombia coverage this week, we reviewed the effect that Petro’s Total Peace policy has had on criminal and violence dynamics in the country, two years after he assumed office.  


We also explored what a record-breaking fentanyl seizure on the US borders says about Mexico’s synthetic drugs trade, and we assessed the rise of ketamine in Chile’s synthetic drug market.  


This and more below.  

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Peace negotiations with Colombia’s last true guerrilla insurgency are on the verge of collapse after the August 3 expiration of a ceasefire between the government and the ELN.

The bilateral ceasefire, in effect for the past year, ended after the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN) rejected government offers to discuss a renewal.

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In an interview with Radio Canada, InSight Crime co-director Jeremy McDermott provided an analysis of the criminal landscape in Venezuela one week after the country’s disputed elections. 


Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro presides over a model of hybrid criminal governance, benefitting from alliances with criminal groups. “He has essentially created a system of fiefdoms across the country, partnering with criminal groups in order to access the rents they manage,” McDermott said.  


InSight Crime continues to provide comprehensive analysis of organized crime dynamics in Venezuela through the Venezuela Organized Crime Observatory. 


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Read more about Venezuela’s hybrid criminal state >

This Week's Criminal Profile: National Liberation Army (Ejército Nacional de Liberación – ELN)

The ceasefire agreement between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (Ejército Nacional de Liberación – ELN) came to an end on August 4. This has dealt a potentially mortal blow to the already fragile peace negotiations between the two parties, and leaves President Gustavo Petro’s flagship Total Peace policy hanging by a thread. 


The ELN, Colombia’s last guerrilla group, has been accused of violating the ceasefire 39 times over the past year through acts of violence and kidnappings. Parallel peace talks between the government and ELN’s dissident factions like the Comuneros del Sur may cause fractures within the group.

Trending Topic: Total Peace in Colombia

The end of the ceasefire agreement between the ELN and the Colombian government may dash President Gustavo Petro’s hopes of reaching an agreement that would see the guerrilla group lay down its arms. This is the central process for his Total Peace policy.


However, as parallel talks with dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) continue and a new dialogue opens with the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AGC), the country’s largest drug trafficking organization, some deals may still be possible.


InSight Crime continues to provide authoritative coverage of Colombia’s peace process. To find out more, read our analysis below or explore our Total Peace series.

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