Who is going to win in November, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Polls are tightening across the board with Kamala vastly outraising Trump.

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Hello, I hope August is off to a great start for you and yours.

Who is going to win in November, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Polls are tightening across the board with Kamala vastly outraising Trump in July - $310 million to $137 million. Trump and Vance have had a couple bad weeks.

Money is a sign of momentum to be sure; the question is whether funds can translate into swing state votes in 3 months.

People ask me all of the time who I think is going to win. I personally think that the compressed time frame favors Kamala and if there is a presidential debate it will help her. The DNC will likely run a good convention that will help too – they have some appealing figures.

But I’m going to suggest that the most important variable in the race now is what RFK Jr. decides to do down the stretch.

You might have forgotten about RFK Jr. – his fortunes have declined since Kamala replaced Biden with his vote share decreasing. Still, the latest polling has him at 5% in Arizona and Michigan, 4% in Georgia, 7% in Nevada, 3% in Pennsylvania, and 6% in Wisconsin with Harris and Trump essentially tied. His vote share is more than enough to tip the election either way.

These same polls suggest that RFK’s voters now overlap more with Trump’s than with Harris’s, and that his being in the race probably helps the Dems at the margins.

In my view, RFK is one of the biggest remaining factors in this race. I believe there’s a very significant chance that he endorses Trump in the homestretch, which will likely be enough to tip the race to Trump.

RFK has been in touch with Donald Trump – video of their call was leaked - and canceled multiple days of campaign events during the RNC. It was speculated that he was going to make a surprise endorsement at the RNC in return for a position in the Trump White House.

I believe this will still happen sometime this Fall. And it will be enough to be the difference in the swing states.

Here’s the problem: I don’t think that Kamala Harris and the Democrats have it in them to call RFK and broker a similar deal. They have classified RFK as an anti-vaxxer and a kook – It’s not like they can turn around now and make him the head of the FDA. RFK, despite beginning his campaign as a Democrat, now comes across as more of an anti-establishment type. It would be more natural to see him as part of a Trump administration than a Harris team.

Kamala Harris and the Dems should be pivoting to this kind of conversation. The money will continue to flow. The ad money will be there. The challenge is to broaden the coalition to include folks who can appeal to the swing voters in the swing states. If RFK is a bridge too far, they should definitely be trying to woo Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Chris Christie and the other anti-Trumpers.

The other third party candidates – Jill Stein, Cornel West, Chase Oliver – are barely registering. RFK though has a real chance to be the biggest domino left in this race. I hope I’m wrong as to which way it’s going to fall.

To be part of the positive independent political movement dedicated to improving our choices, check out Forward ([link removed]) , which is backing dozens of positive local candidates ([link removed]) this November as well as ballot initiatives that could improve the primary system in Nevada, Colorado, Idaho and other states. Also this week I answered listener and reader questions on the podcast – feel free to submit your questions at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) . Next week, Freakonomics!
Andrew Yang
Co-Chair, Forward Party
forwardparty.com ([link removed])
andrewyang.com ([link removed])

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