Hello, I hope August is off to a great start for you and yours. 

Who is going to win in November, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?  Polls are tightening across the board with Kamala vastly outraising Trump in July $310 million to $137 million.  Trump and Vance have had a couple bad weeks. 

Money is a sign of momentum to be sure; the question is whether funds can translate into swing state votes in 3 months. 

People ask me all of the time who I think is going to win.  I personally think that the compressed time frame favors Kamala and if there is a presidential debate it will help her.  The DNC will likely run a good convention that will help too – they have some appealing figures.

But I’m going to suggest that the most important variable in the race now is what RFK Jr. decides to do down the stretch. 

You might have forgotten about RFK Jr. – his fortunes have declined since Kamala replaced Biden with his vote share decreasing.  Still, the latest polling has him at 5% in Arizona and Michigan, 4% in Georgia, 7% in Nevada, 3% in Pennsylvania, and 6% in Wisconsin with Harris and Trump essentially tied.  His vote share is more than enough to tip the election either way. 

These same polls suggest that RFK’s voters now overlap more with Trump’s than with Harris’s, and that his being in the race probably helps the Dems at the margins.

In my view, RFK is one of the biggest remaining factors in this race.  If he were to endorse either major candidate it might help push him or her over the top in a few key states.  

Other potential swing figures include Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Chris Christie and the other anti-Trumpers. If I’m Kamala Harris and the Dems I’m wooing these figure assiduously.  

The other third party candidates – Jill Stein, Cornel West, Chase Oliver – are barely registering.  RFK though has a real chance to be the biggest domino left in this race. Where he goes could determine the outcome in November.  

To be part of the positive independent political movement dedicated to improving our choices, check out Forward, which is backing dozens of positive local candidates this November as well as ballot initiatives that could improve the primary system in Nevada, Colorado, Idaho and other states.  Also this week I answered listener and reader questions on the podcast – feel free to submit your questions at [email protected].  Next week, Freakonomics!