Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** July 16, 2024
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How Climate Change Could Impact America's Critical Functions
The United States used to experience around three billion-dollar weather disasters a year. (That's according to federal estimates adjusted for inflation.) By the early 2000s, that number had risen to six. In the 2010s, it was more like 13. Last year, there were 28.
This trend will likely continue: Climate models suggest that extreme storms will double in frequency by the end of this century, compared with historical averages. U.S. cities may endure 60 percent more days of extreme heat than they're used to. Global sea levels could rise by more than four feet.
How might these changes strain the basic functions that underpin U.S. society, such as providing medical care or transmitting electricity? RAND researchers have been working with the federal government to answer this question. In their latest report, they estimate that, by 2050, nearly half of these functions will face at least moderate disruptions.
And by the end of the century, the effects of extreme weather could disrupt America's supply chains or strain the nation's ability to supply water to communities, especially across the Western United States.
Understanding these potential scenarios may be key to making progress. "Climate change is such a daunting, huge thing for people to wrap their arms around," says RAND's Andrew Lauland, a coauthor of the study. "This allows us to focus the conversation on where we're really vulnerable, where we're really at risk, so we can start talking productively about what to do about it."
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What Might Come of Russia's Military After the War in Ukraine?
From poor force employment, to flawed unit leadership, to mistreatment of personnel, Russia's military has struggled mightily since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A new RAND report looks at how these failures might affect Moscow's future ability to recruit and retain military personnel. The findings show that the Russian military sustained more casualties in the first 18 months of war in Ukraine than in an entire decade in Afghanistan or during two campaigns in Chechnya. The impact of these casualties and the combat trauma for those who survive will have acute and lasting effects on Russia's ability to recruit and retain service personnel for many years.
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One Way to Help Governments Close the Tech Talent Gap
Credential-stacking programs allow students to earn a series of credentials over time that lead to a college degree or certificate. Such programs are designed to be approachable and flexible for working adults. And according to RAND's Nelson Lim, they may also be key to addressing the public sector's severe shortage of skilled IT workers. State and local governments could work closely with community colleges and universities to develop stackable certificate programs that meet specific skill needs. "It's a win-win situation," he says. Workers gain skills and advance their careers, while governments build "a more resilient, capable, and loyal workforce ready to deliver the services constituents expect in the 21st century."
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** RAND Recommends
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- Speaking to Voice of America, RAND's Michelle Grisé discussed what it would take for China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to form a tighter alliance--and what that might mean for the United States and NATO.
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- What are the advantages of quantum computing over classical computing? Is quantum computing a practical option to solve difficult problems? RAND's Nicolas Robles provides some insights.
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- The South China Morning Post quoted RAND researchers Timothy Heath and Raymond Kuo about how China and the United States are using military drone technology.
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** Events
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Recent Trends Among the Unsheltered in Los Angeles
Wednesday, July 17, 2024 (Online)
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AI Security: Safeguarding Large Language Models and Why This Matters for the Future of Geopolitics
Thursday, July 18, 2024 (Washington, D.C., and Online)
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Considering Alternatives to Prohibiting Psychedelic Drugs
Thursday, July 18, 2024 (Online)
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Policy Lab: Reconstructing Ukraine
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 (Online)
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Pardee RAND Admissions Webinar: Master of National Security Policy Overview
Thursday, July 25, 2024 (Online; more dates available at the link below.)
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