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The United States used to experience around three billion-dollar weather disasters a year. (That's according to federal estimates adjusted for inflation.) By the early 2000s, that number had risen to six. In the 2010s, it was more like 13. Last year, there were 28.
This trend will likely continue: Climate models suggest that extreme storms will double in frequency by the end of this century, compared with historical averages. U.S. cities may endure 60 percent more days of extreme heat than they're used to. Global sea levels could rise by more than four feet.
How might these changes strain the basic functions that underpin U.S. society, such as providing medical care or transmitting electricity? RAND researchers have been working with the federal government to answer this question. In their latest report, they estimate that, by 2050, nearly half of these functions will face at least moderate disruptions.
And by the end of the century, the effects of extreme weather could disrupt America's supply chains or strain the nation's ability to supply water to communities, especially across the Western United States.
Understanding these potential scenarios may be key to making progress. “Climate change is such a daunting, huge thing for people to wrap their arms around,” says RAND's Andrew Lauland, a coauthor of the study. “This allows us to focus the conversation on where we're really vulnerable, where we're really at risk, so we can start talking productively about what to do about it.”
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