Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** July 11, 2024
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NATO's 'Containment-Plus' Strategy Toward Russia
As the NATO summit in Washington wraps up today, alliance leaders seem likely to recommit to a "containment-plus" policy toward Russia. Such an approach seeks to stop or limit some of Russia's harmful activities through sanctions and other measures.
"Containment-plus" also pushes back against Russia's occupation of parts of Ukraine. For instance, Washington recently allowed Kyiv to fire U.S.-produced weapons at military forces in Russia that are attacking or about to attack Ukraine.
This is the right strategy, say RAND's John Tefft and William Courtney--both former U.S. ambassadors--as long as "Russia is ruled by a regime as aggressive and oppressive as President Vladimir Putin's."
But even as NATO leaders impose these "containment-plus" policies, they face many obstacles: Russia's ongoing offensive in Ukraine, heightened nuclear threats, and a recent reshuffle at the Kremlin that's aimed at developing a more efficient military sector. Further, Moscow has succeeded in evading some sanctions, has stepped up its subterfuge against NATO members in Europe, and is cultivating ties with China.
Tefft and Courtney conclude that the alliance must devise "new approaches to deal with Moscow's rogue behavior and an international order that is becoming more complex and less stable."
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* More on NATO *
- We spoke to 30 RAND researchers about what might define the future of the Western alliance. Here's what they had to say.
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- For deeper insights into issues like Ukraine's potential NATO membership, the alliance's human security agenda, and how NATO might adapt to climate change, check out this extensive list of commentary by RAND experts.
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- RAND has been studying NATO since the beginning, informing historic decisions that have guided the alliance's adaptation and transformation. We recently created an interactive timeline showing the history of NATO and related RAND research.
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Respiratory Health Among U.S. Veterans Across Age and Over Time
A new RAND report adds to the growing body of research on the relationship between military service and respiratory health. The authors analyzed survey data on the health and well-being of both veterans and their civilian peers and found that both groups had similar respiratory health profiles during their 20s and 30s. But at older ages, veterans had worse respiratory health profiles than civilians did. Although cigarette smoking may be a major contributing factor, more research is needed to understand other factors that could affect lung health, such as environmental exposures during military service.
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Tracking Homelessness in Los Angeles
For nearly three years, RAND researchers have been tracking the number of people experiencing homelessness in three Los Angeles neighborhoods: Hollywood, Skid Row, and Venice. The latest findings show that, in 2023, the number of unsheltered residents in these neighborhoods remained stable--a notable change from late September 2021 through 2022, when the rate of growth was approximately 10 percent annually. However, the needs of this population remain high, with many individuals experiencing mental health conditions, chronic physical health conditions, and substance use disorder.
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** RAND Recommends
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- India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. In TIME, RAND's Derek Grossman said the visit is a reminder of how hard it is to enlist New Delhi in a coalition to counter Russia's invasion of Ukraine: "In short, it won't happen."
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- RAND's Wendy Troxel recently led a study on the effects of sleep problems among urban American Indian and Alaska Native youth. The findings "highlight the importance of developing culturally informed treatment strategies to support sleep health," she said.
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- While the tempo of attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea has slowed, the United States does not seem to have a long-term plan for stability in Yemen. Thus, U.S. policy continues to perpetuate threats in the region, says RAND's Alexandra Stark.
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** Events
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Pardee RAND Admissions Webinar: Master of National Security Policy Overview
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 (Online; more dates available at the link below.)
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Recent Trends Among the Unsheltered in Los Angeles
Wednesday, July 17, 2024 (Online)
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AI Security: Safeguarding Large Language Models and Why This Matters for the Future of Geopolitics
Thursday, July 18, 2024 (Washington, D.C., and Online)
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Considering Alternatives to Prohibiting Psychedelic Drugs
Thursday, July 18, 2024 (Online)
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Policy Lab: Reconstructing Ukraine
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 (Online)
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