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Today’s Top 3: We examine new polling on how potential Democratic presidential candidates compare to Donald Trump, the rise in NATO defense spending, and AI’s impact on the job market.

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1. Polling Preview: Trump vs. Harris
Topline: Following President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt analyzes <[link removed]> new polling <[link removed]> on how Democratic presidential hopefuls fare against former President Donald Trump.



- Among registered voters, Trump leads all Democratic candidates, including Biden by 6 points and Harris by 2 points.
- Vice President Kamala Harris outperforms the other Democrats, winning support from women, non-white voters, 18 to 34-year-olds, and independent voters.



The “Harris Hail Mary”: Stirewalt notes that Harris has the potential to rise in the polls
and easier access to the Biden-Harris campaign funds. Also, if the “Harris Hail Mary” is successful, it would likely halt any presidential ambitions from Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom until 2032.






“Harris would be an underdog in a race with Trump, for sure. But with Biden looking like a sure loser, Democrats might prefer an uncertain chance for victory to certain defeat.” 
—Chris Stirewalt
2. Make NATO Great Again
Topline: As NATO’s 75th anniversary summit concludes, AEI’s Marc Thiessen argues <[link removed]> that, in a second term, Donald Trump could increase defense spending among NATO allies and bolster the alliance. During Trump’s administration, NATO allies raised defense spending by $130 billion.



- NATO allies’ commitments during Trump’s presidency account for 80% of the
projected $510 billion increase in defense spending from 2016 to 2024.


NATO’s MAGA Supporters: As loyal DataPoints readers may remember, a recent RRI poll <[link removed]> found
that MAGA Republicans support NATO allies but expect them to meet the defense spending requirements.



- 69% of MAGA Republicans support using military force if a NATO ally in Europe is
attacked, but this support drops to 46% if the ally isn’t meeting its defense spending commitment.
3. AI's Job Disruption, Not Destruction
Topline: Recent polling <[link removed]> shows that 75% of Americans believe AI will reduce job opportunities,
but AEI’s Michael Strain cautions <[link removed]> against widespread AI pessimism. Highlighting data on unemployment rates, income growth, and labor market changes, he finds that while concerns about disruption are legitimate, technological advancements like AI are a net positive for American workers.

Not the First Time: As Strain notes, workers have already experienced disruptive technologies such as the internet, personal computers, smartphones,
and robotics—and those changes didn’t correspond with a rising trend of unemployment rates.

For More: See Strain’s full article <[link removed]> for a deeper read on AI’s labor market impact and potential to improve society.
Last but Not Least . . .
Schrodinger’s Climate Cat <[link removed]>
Unprecedented US Immigration Surge Boosts Job Growth <[link removed]>
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