Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.

Edited by Sutton Houser
Special thanks to Brady Africk, Hannah Bowen, and Carter Hutchinson

Welcome back! We hope y’all had a great Fourth of July!

Today’s Top 3: We examine new polling on how potential Democratic presidential candidates compare to Donald Trump, the rise in NATO defense spending, and AI’s impact on the job market.

Subscribe and send DataPoints to a friend!

For inquiries, please email [email protected].

1. Polling Preview: Trump vs. Harris

Topline: Following President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt analyzes new polling on how Democratic presidential hopefuls fare against former President Donald Trump.

Among registered voters, Trump leads all Democratic candidates, including Biden by 6 points and Harris by 2 points.
Vice President Kamala Harris outperforms the other Democrats, winning support from women, non-white voters, 18 to 34-year-olds, and independent voters.

The “Harris Hail Mary”: Stirewalt notes that Harris has the potential to rise in the polls and easier access to the Biden-Harris campaign funds. Also, if the “Harris Hail Mary” is successful, it would likely halt any presidential ambitions from Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom until 2032.

“Harris would be an underdog in a race with Trump, for sure. But with Biden looking like a sure loser, Democrats might prefer an uncertain chance for victory to certain defeat.”

—Chris Stirewalt

See Presidential Polling

2. Make NATO Great Again

Topline: As NATO’s 75th anniversary summit concludes, AEI’s Marc Thiessen argues that, in a second term, Donald Trump could increase defense spending among NATO allies and bolster the alliance. During Trump’s administration, NATO allies raised defense spending by $130 billion.

NATO allies’ commitments during Trump’s presidency account for 80% of the projected $510 billion increase in defense spending from 2016 to 2024.

NATO’s MAGA Supporters: As loyal DataPoints readers may remember, a recent RRI poll found that MAGA Republicans support NATO allies but expect them to meet the defense spending requirements.

69% of MAGA Republicans support using military force if a NATO ally in Europe is attacked, but this support drops to 46% if the ally isn’t meeting its defense spending commitment.

More on a NATO Makeover

3. AI's Job Disruption, Not Destruction

Topline: Recent polling shows that 75% of Americans believe AI will reduce job opportunities, but AEI’s Michael Strain cautions against widespread AI pessimism. Highlighting data on unemployment rates, income growth, and labor market changes, he finds that while concerns about disruption are legitimate, technological advancements like AI are a net positive for American workers.

Not the First Time: As Strain notes, workers have already experienced disruptive technologies such as the internet, personal computers, smartphones, and robotics—and those changes didn’t correspond with a rising trend of unemployment rates.

For More: See Strain’s full article for a deeper read on AI’s labor market impact and potential to improve society.

Read the Case for AI

Last but Not Least . . .

Schrodinger’s Climate Cat