It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Nathan Howard/Reuters

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

WHAT WILL DEMOCRATS DO? OR NOT DO?
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

For the past five days, I’ve been speaking and texting with more than three dozen Democratic members of Congress, who find themselves in a rare predicament.

President Joe Biden’s hard-to-watch debate performance ([link removed]) moved the center of conversation from former President Donald Trump and what he might mean to U.S. democracy to Biden and whether he is fit to serve another four years at the head of it.

Democrats have some decisions to make — starting with whether they need to do anything at all.

At least nine members of Congress have said he should step down, either publicly or to their leadership. (See our segment last night ([link removed]) for a rundown of all nine.)
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Watch the segment in the player above.
A far larger number, scores by my count, feel that way privately.

There are three possible scenarios here.
1. Biden stays as the nominee.
2. Biden steps aside, in favor of his vice president, Kamala Harris.
3. Biden steps aside and a replacement battle is unleashed.


Which of these is most likely?

Last week, momentum was clearly moving against Biden. Privately, very few lawmakers told me they supported him remaining as nominee. House members questioned his decision-making and said they wanted to see him engage more directly, and in a more challenging way with the press. Over the weekend, more Senate members told me that they, too, felt the party and country would be better if Biden stepped back.

Meanwhile, a slow chorus was building in favor of Harris. Strong words by some Congressional Black Caucus members ([link removed]) — reflecting one of the most clear stances of any group of Democrats — anchored the idea that if Biden stepped aside, Harris was the only acceptable option.

But in the past 24 hours, things changed again. The Biden team seems to have made significant progress on securing his path to remain as nominee.

Critical in this has been the support of the Congressional Black Caucus, with whom he held a virtual meeting last night, and key figures from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

His interviews and campaigning trips have done little to change minds at the Capitol. But the support of these key Democratic base groups, alongside his determination to hold onto the nomination, has made other Democrats leery of moving against him.

Today, in the first caucus meetings since the debate for both Senate and House Democrats, we expected a blitz of voices publicly calling for Biden to drop out. Instead, there was mostly controlled silence.

And we have seen little public change.

One exception: New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill came out with a statement ([link removed]) asking Biden to step aside.

Overall, there was NOT the breaking of the Biden dam as many expected last week. Numerous sources indicated that they believe the tide may have turned. But Biden is not in the clear yet.

When will we know?

This week remains critical, with Biden holding several events, including an extended news conference Thursday evening as the NATO summit concludes.

Democrats, and the Biden campaign, know that they do not have a lot of time. Come Monday, when the Republican Convention starts in Milwaukee, it will be harder for Democrats to change their nominee without risking one of their key arguments to voters: That they are the more stable party.

Technically, Democrats could keep this nomination debate open a short time after that ([link removed]) , but realistically, this is the week where they need to coalesce around one direction if they want a chance at regaining momentum overall.

For now, that momentum has swung back in Biden’s direction.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: Biden pushes back ([link removed]) as more Democrats call for him to step aside.
* One Big Question: Should the president step aside? PBS News spoke with two Democratic members of Congress — one who says Biden should leave the ticket ([link removed]) , one who says he should stay in the race ([link removed]) .
* A Closer Look: Iran just elected its first reformist president ([link removed]) in two decades. What’s next?
* Perspectives: NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter on Donald Trump’s ties to the conservative Project 2025 plan ([link removed]) .

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Matt Loffman, @mattloff ([link removed])
Politics Producer

The Trump campaign has announced their daily themes ([link removed]) for next week’s Republican National Convention, each featuring a different adjective in the title. They are:
* Make America Wealthy Once Again
* Make America Safe Once Again
* Make America Strong Once Again
* Make America Great Once Again

Our question: Only one of these descriptive words is recycled from the 2016 convention when Trump was first nominated. Which word is it?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Including the Chevron decision, how many decisions has the Supreme Court overturned since 1810?

The answer: 236 ([link removed]) . The Library of Congress keeps track of overrule Supreme Court cases in its Constitution Annotated site.

Congratulations to our winner: Michael Doherty!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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