Which of these is most likely?
Last week, momentum was clearly moving against Biden. Privately, very few lawmakers told me they supported him remaining as nominee. House members questioned his decision-making and said they wanted to see him engage more directly, and in a more challenging way with the press. Over the weekend, more Senate members told me that they, too, felt the party and country would be better if Biden stepped back.
Meanwhile, a slow chorus was building in favor of Harris.
Strong words by some Congressional Black Caucus members — reflecting one of the most clear stances of any group of Democrats — anchored the idea that if Biden stepped aside, Harris was the only acceptable option.
But in the past 24 hours, things changed again. The Biden team seems to have made significant progress on securing his path to remain as nominee.
Critical in this has been the support of the Congressional Black Caucus, with whom he held a virtual meeting last night, and key figures from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
His interviews and campaigning trips have done little to change minds at the Capitol. But the support of these key Democratic base groups, alongside his determination to hold onto the nomination, has made other Democrats leery of moving against him.
Today, in the first caucus meetings since the debate for both Senate and House Democrats, we expected a blitz of voices publicly calling for Biden to drop out. Instead, there was mostly controlled silence.
And we have seen little public change.
One exception: New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill
came out with a statement asking Biden to step aside.
Overall, there was NOT the breaking of the Biden dam as many expected last week. Numerous sources indicated that they believe the tide may have turned. But Biden is not in the clear yet.
When will we know?
This week remains critical, with Biden holding several events, including an extended news conference Thursday evening as the NATO summit concludes.
Democrats, and the Biden campaign, know that they do not have a lot of time. Come Monday, when the Republican Convention starts in Milwaukee, it will be harder for Democrats to change their nominee without risking one of their key arguments to voters: That they are the more stable party.
Technically, Democrats could keep this nomination debate
open a short time after that, but realistically, this is the week where they need to coalesce around one direction if they want a chance at regaining momentum overall.
For now, that momentum has swung back in Biden’s direction.
