Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** July 9, 2024
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NATO Summit in Washington: RAND Experts Weigh In

Western leaders are gathering in Washington today for a historic NATO summit. In this special edition of Policy Currents, we're bringing you expert insights on the alliance as it celebrates its 75th anniversary--and looks ahead to the next 75 years.

We talked to 30 RAND researchers to learn more about what might define the future of NATO. They highlighted a wide range of challenges, including
- Russia's ongoing aggression--and the long-term threat from Moscow after the war in Ukraine ends
- rising populism around the world and a shift toward autocracy among some member states
- integrating emerging technologies like AI into NATO's military architecture--and "getting it right at scale, at speed, and in time."

Our experts also pointed out opportunities that NATO could seize to help secure its future, such as
- taking advantage of the "formidable capabilities and excellent geographic advantages" offered by NATO's newest members, Finland and Sweden
- bolstering NATO's partnership with the European Union, while also deepening cooperation with nations such as South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand
- strategic growth in several key areas--from gender in operations, to space policy, to detecting and responding to disease outbreaks.

This is just a sample of what our experts had to say. These and other topics the researchers highlighted will surely be part of the agenda at this week's summit--and key to shaping the long-term future of the Western alliance.

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What Does Each Ally Bring to NATO?

RAND experts recently published a country-by-country index that shows what each NATO member state contributes to the collective defense. The United States is by far the biggest contributor--bearing around 47 percent of the total burden--but it's not as lopsided as it might seem. Importantly, the index details more than just spending. It also shows what each nation can actually bring to the table in wartime (e.g., personnel, aircraft, artillery). These insights provide greater detail on collective defense contributions than previously available, allowing U.S. and NATO leaders to identify shortfalls and make targeted requests to the countries best suited to address them.

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75 Years of RAND Insights on the Alliance

Our researchers have been studying NATO since its early days. A new RAND report takes a look at this vast body of work, focusing on four of NATO's strategic challenges: the need to provide effective deterrence and defense; the importance of the transatlantic bargain (the need for reciprocal commitments to collective defense on both sides of the Atlantic); NATO expansion; and adapting to changes in the security environment. The authors offer important lessons for charting the alliance's future in these areas, all of which will feature prominently in the Washington summit.

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** More Insights on NATO
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In the weeks leading up to the summit, RAND researchers have been weighing in on all things NATO:

- Ann Marie Dailey explores the need to build a bridge to NATO membership for Ukraine.
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- Dailey is also the subject of a wide-ranging Q&A on key questions facing the alliance.
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- According to Andrew Radin, U.S. leadership is essential to the success of NATO's new Ukraine command--and the war in Afghanistan shows why.
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- Jeffrey Hornung examines practical areas of cooperation between NATO and Japan.
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- Michelle Grisé breaks down how Russia is rebuilding its military. It's essential for NATO to understand both the speed and nature of Russian reconstitution, she says.
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- Pauline Paillé says that NATO needs to revive its human security agenda.
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- Daniel Hill and Rebecca Lucas discuss how NATO could ensure the supply of critical materials.
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- Nicolas Jouan explains what NATO can do to defuse the situation in the Arctic, which has transformed into a "geostrategic flashpoint."
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- According to James Black, NATO countries need more-robust plans to secure their homelands against shocks or attack.
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- Maria Chiara Aquilino and Sarah Winder highlight ways that NATO can weave climate change considerations into its planning and decisionmaking.
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- Stephen Dalzell and Paul Cormarie say that NATO can take greater advantage of its reserve capabilities.
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- Cormarie also wrote with Scott Stephenson about how NATO can reduce the environmental impacts of military activities.
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- Bruce McClintock and Anca Agachi outline specific actions NATO can take to "throttle up" its space policy.
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- Anna Dowd--writing with Dominik Jankowski, deputy permanent representative of Poland to NATO--explains how NATO can revamp its economic security agenda.
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- Writing in May, shortly after a major U.S. aid package to Ukraine was passed and signed into law, Michael Bohnert discussed potential future investments that could help Ukraine win the war.
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** Events
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Pardee RAND Admissions Webinar: Master of National Security Policy Overview
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 (Online; more dates available at the link above.)
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Recent Trends Among the Unsheltered in Los Angeles
Wednesday, July 17, 2024 (Online)
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AI Security: Safeguarding Large Language Models and Why This Matters for the Future of Geopolitics
Thursday, July 18, 2024 (Washington, D.C., and Online)
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Considering Alternatives to Prohibiting Psychedelic Drugs
Thursday, July 18, 2024 (Online)
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Policy Lab: Reconstructing Ukraine
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 (Online)
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