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Images by Olivier Douliery/Reuters, Lulla/Fotolia, and Pascal Rossignol/Reuters; design by Haley Okuley/RAND
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Western leaders are gathering in Washington today for a historic NATO summit. In this special edition of Policy Currents, we're bringing you expert insights on the alliance as it celebrates its 75th anniversary—and looks ahead to the next 75 years.
We talked to 30 RAND researchers to learn more about what might define the future of NATO. They highlighted a wide range of challenges, including
- Russia's ongoing aggression—and the long-term threat from Moscow after the war in Ukraine ends
- rising populism around the world and a shift toward autocracy among some member states
- integrating emerging technologies like AI into NATO's military architecture—and “getting it right at scale, at speed, and in time.”
Our experts also pointed out opportunities that NATO could seize to help secure its future, such as
- taking advantage of the “formidable capabilities and excellent geographic advantages” offered by NATO's newest members, Finland and Sweden
- bolstering NATO's partnership with the European Union, while also deepening cooperation with nations such as South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand
- strategic growth in several key areas—from gender in operations, to space policy, to detecting and responding to disease outbreaks.
This is just a sample of what our experts had to say. These and other topics the researchers highlighted will surely be part of the agenda at this week's summit—and key to shaping the long-term future of the Western alliance.
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RAND experts recently published a country-by-country index that shows what each NATO member state contributes to the collective defense. The United States is by far the biggest contributor—bearing around 47 percent of the total burden—but it's not as lopsided as it might seem. Importantly, the index details more than just spending. It also shows what each nation can actually bring to the table in wartime (e.g., personnel, aircraft, artillery). These insights provide greater detail on collective defense contributions than previously available, allowing U.S. and NATO leaders to identify shortfalls and make targeted requests to the countries best suited to address them. Read more »
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Our researchers have been studying NATO since its early days. A new RAND report takes a look at this vast body of work, focusing on four of NATO's strategic challenges: the need to provide effective deterrence and defense; the importance of the transatlantic bargain (the need for reciprocal commitments to collective defense on both sides of the Atlantic); NATO expansion; and adapting to changes in the security environment. The authors offer important lessons for charting the alliance's future in these areas, all of which will feature prominently in the Washington summit. Read more »
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Events
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Tuesday, July 16, 2024 – Online (More dates available at the link above.)
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Wednesday, July 17, 2024 – Online
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Thursday, July 18, 2024 – Washington, D.C., and Online
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Thursday, July 18, 2024 – Online
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Wednesday, July 24, 2024 – Online
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