From Niall McGourty <[email protected]>
Subject All bets are off
Date June 22, 2024 7:26 AM
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Dear John,

With two weeks to go until hot-take merchants reveal how tepid they are, I can confirm we are just as tired as you are, probably more so (more on that imminently). 

But don't worry, the end is in sight and polling suggests the light at the end of the tunnel is probably not a train so let’s keep marching towards it…

GetVoting GetsGoing



It’s official, according to hyper accurate polling (And BBC Radio 2 testimony <[link removed]>) Britain is a nation of tactical voters!

New B4B polling <[link removed]> released this week shows an unprecedented appetite for tactical voting among Brits, with at least a third of voters in a whopping 558 constituencies saying they would vote tactically to change the Government. In 234 seats this jumps to 40% and in 31 seats, more than half are ready to vote for someone other than their first preference to get rid of Sunak et al. So with Labour so far ahead, tactical voting isn’t really important at this election, right?

WRONG! Our polling shows one in five who say they are voting Labour say they are only doing so tactically. For the Lib Dems it’s one in three. Telling these people they don't need to vote tactically will eat into this lead, saving scores of Conservative MPs and potentially leaving them able to seize power again in five years time. 

But tactical voting only works if voters have up-to-date information on who the best challenger is in their area to the Conservative hegemony. Luckily, this week we also published our long-awaited, much-anticipated tactical voting recommendations on GetVoting.org <[link removed]>. 

Within hours, 2 million people had visited the site to see how they should vote to get rid of this rotten Government and stop hard-right, Brexit-backing, populists like Nigel Farage from getting a foothold in Parliament. Traffic was so high that we even ran into some brief technical difficulties <[link removed]>! But all is working smoothly now so if you haven't already, make sure you check it out. <[link removed]>

Stop the Bets



Inevitably, the biggest political story of the week (besides the launch of recommendations on GetVoting.org) was yet another unforced error <[link removed]>from team Sunak.

Last week, his close aide and candidate in the coming election, Craig Williams, apologised for placing a bet on the date of the general election he almost certainly knew was coming.

This week it was revealed that the Conservative candidate for Bristol North West, Laura Saunders, and her partner, Conservative Party director of campaigning, Tony Lee were dobbed for doing the same.

Even Sunak’s personal protection team <[link removed]>got in on the action!

Following the PPE scandals and innumerate other crony contracts <[link removed]> we’ve logged over the years,  this latest episode of Tories on the make has fallen on fertile ground, furthering the belief that it’s just in their DNA to try to financially gain from any and all political opportunities.

Hey big spender



Appropriately for a limited liability company, this week Reform UK Party Ltd decided on publishing a contract rather than a manifesto.

Besides the many photos of Farage, the 22 page document included vows to freeze non-essential immigration, to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and scrap the UK’s environment goals, all really highlighting the importance of tactical voting

The contract was roundly described as “unserious” and “who the hell wrote this”, with the plans predicted to cost £141 billion. <[link removed].> To put that into perspective, that’s three times the cost of Liz Truss’ economy-crashing, mortgage-hiking mini-budget. 

Farage was also forced to refuse to apologise after a number of Reform UK Party Ltd candidates were implicated in racist and/or islamophobic social media activity including one who thinks ‘Hitler was brilliant’. No, seriously <[link removed]>.

Of course it was all someone else’s fault, with Farage threatening to sue the vetting company he paid £144,000 to ensure he wasn't asking people to vote… let’s say… questionably. It was soon pointed out <[link removed]> that this was not a vetting service but a vetting platform. Kind of the difference between hiring a chef and hiring an oven. 

Farage still asserts that we should trust him with running the country.

Stagnating Debating



In a masterclass of TV scheduling, the latest election debate was broadcast immediately after England and Demark’s one-all snoozefest. The four-way Question Time special did little to lift anyone from their torpor.

Under fire following allegations of the aforementioned betting scan <[link removed]>dal,  Sunak tried to distance himself <[link removed]> by boldly saying, to hell with petty gambling offences, I’m ready to break international law! When it comes to leaving the ECHR, yanno, that brainchild of WINSTON CHURCHILL, he’s ready to ‘bally-ho’ right out of that  “International Court”. The audience cried  “Shame on You” and rightly so, we think. Máith thú, Question Time audience!

Small mercies

The UK inflation has dropped to the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time since 2021! 

Richest Prime Minister in history says “good news”. More on this as it develops.

🫣 Cringe Column 😬

<[link removed]>Following the herd

On Tuesday, Rishi Sunak and David Cameron attempted to feed some sheep at a farm in North Devon. The sheep (in tune with the electorate) ran away.

[link removed]

Stop the Bets

Not long after the betting scandal broke, CCHQ thought it was the perfect moment to release a betting-themed campaign video. The ad was deleted <[link removed]> a day later. 

<[link removed]>Well that’s it for another week!

Regards,
Niall McGourty
Director of Communications

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