From Index on Censorship <[email protected]>
Subject India: Election results and the country's online image | Alderney's wartime secrets | Slovakia
Date June 7, 2024 2:52 PM
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Friday, 07 June 2024
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Prime Minister Modi and UP CM Yogi Adityanath at a roadshow during election campaign in Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh Photo: BJP/CC BY 4.0

After more than six gruelling weeks and hundreds of millions of votes, India’s general election finally drew to a prolonged close this week. As predicted, current Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been re-elected for a third successive term, but the results aren’t as comfortable as expected for the seasoned leader.

The election has challenged the dominance of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), who have had their parliamentary majority significantly reduced to the extent that they will now have to enter a coalition in order to form a government in the world’s most populous nation.

This was a surprising outcome for several reasons. Data from the exit polls - usually the most reliable when it comes to predicting election outcomes - projected a landslide victory for the BJP, although analysts warned that these polls are not always impartial ([link removed]) . The BJP themselves also expected to sweep to victory and had even run on the slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar”, meaning they aimed to win 400 seats. Instead, they won just 240 seats as a single party, and scraped to a slim majority of 283 with the alliance.

Our contributing editor Salil Tripathi says, “Nobody, least of all Modi himself, thought the electoral outcome would be such a setback for him. To be sure, his party has still won more than double the seats of its nearest rival, the Congress, and its own tally exceeds the entire opposition alliance. And yet, the fact is that he has lost his majority. The poor, the rural voters, the marginalised, and the dispossessed weren't swayed by the Rama temple, they weren't enthusiastic about the G20 summit, the rocket on the far side of the moon, or the world's tallest statue or largest cricket stadium. They were concerned about access to food, serviceable roads in rural areas, and the lack of jobs. And so they turned away from his divisive rhetoric. The poor in India get to express themselves only at elections, and that's the only time elite India listens to them. To that extent, this is a triumph of democracy.”

Modi is not infallible.

It’s not often that Modi has had to face questions over his leadership during his time in power - his personal brand has grown far beyond that of the BJP. This dramatic loss of seats has therefore taken most people by surprise. However, when we look at the actions of the government over the last few years, perhaps it shouldn’t come as such a shock that people in India aren’t completely convinced that the party has their best interests in mind.

The BJP have been steadily chipping away at the right to free speech over the course of Modi’s two terms in office. Since the party came to power, more than 100 politicians have been investigated by federal agencies - 95% of which have been from opposition parties ([link removed]) . Last December, 141 opposition lawmakers were suspended from parliament ([link removed]) for protesting a security leak. The crackdown on opposition members in the build up to the election was so severe that Amnesty International described it as having reached “crisis point”.

The election itself also showcased the threats facing free expression in the country. Modi openly targeted Muslims during his election campaign, spouting Islamophobic conspiracy theories and anti-minority rhetoric during his rallies ([link removed]) . The campaign season was also plagued by accusations of misinformation. Divyendra Singh Jadoun - the founder of an AI media company who is widely known as the “Indian Deepfaker” - told Index that his organisation had been asked on a number of occasions to create fake, unethical content of electoral candidates ([link removed]) .

At Index, we have been following the escalating free speech issues in the country closely, dedicating an issue of our magazine to Modi’s age of intolerance ([link removed]) in 2023. We also announced yesterday the launch ofa new project to protect free expression online in India ([link removed]) as the government reiterates its commitment to passing the Digital India Act - a piece of legislation aimed at improving internet safety but which has potential to become a tool for censorship.

Yet even with these oppressive tactics, Modi’s influence has waned due to the power of the electorate.

Of course, it’s too early to know exactly what the election result means for the future of Indian politics. A stronger, more present opposition can only be a good thing, and the coalition government may force the BJP to tone down some of their authoritarian tendencies. However, there’s always a risk that Modi may attempt to reassert his authority by clamping down on free expression further.

Nevertheless, in a year dubbed the biggest election year in history ([link removed]) , Modi’s setback serves as a timely reminder that democracy can prevail against the odds. Things aren’t all rosy; Modi is still in power and likely will remain there for at least another five years. If his previous terms are anything to go by then we know that he could do some serious damage to rights and freedoms in that time. But these days we have to take the positives we can get.

Hopefully this election is a sign of better things to come.

Daisy Ruddock, editorial assistant
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** Looking forward: Challenges facing online speech regulation in India
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More than 850 million Indians are now online. Photo: Jaikishan Patel/Unsplash

The growth of internet access in India has been exponential. According to the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) ([link removed]) , in 2000 5.5 million Indians were online; last year that number was 850 million. To look at India’s increasing economic and geopolitical clout is to also see a country willing to take on the tech giants to control India’s image online. The Indian government has not tiptoed around calling for platforms such as X and YouTube to remove content or accounts.

India’s online regulatory regime is over 20 years old and with the proliferation of online users and the emergence of new technologies, its age is starting to show. India is not alone in wrestling with this complex issue – just look at the Online Safety Act in the UK, the Digital Services Act (DSA) for the EU, as well as the ongoing discussions around Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act in the USA. Following the election, the current government has confirmed its intention to update and expand the regulation of online platforms, through the ambitious Digital India Act (DIA).

Read why Index on Censorship is choosing this moment to launch a new project to support Indian civil society engagement with the DIA ([link removed]) .


** No D-Day for the Channel Islands
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Tunnel to Arch Beach on Alderney from the Nazi concentration camp Lager Norderney. Photo: Neil Howard/CC BY-NC 2.0 ([link removed])

As we mark the 80th anniversary of D-Day this week, it is worth remembering that for one part of the British Isles the events have something of a bitter taste. As thousands of Allied troops landed on the beaches of Normandy on 6 June 1944, the residents of the Channel Islands, occupied by the Nazis for nearly four years, could have been forgiven for thinking their liberation was near. In fact, they had to wait another 11 long months.

A recent inquiry into slave labour camps on Alderney showed much of the story of the islands remains untold, writes Martin Bright ([link removed]) .


** Slovakia: democracy just bearing up
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Slovakia's four-time Prime Minister Robert Fico. Photo: European Council

Slovakia still meets the threshold for democracy in global comparative measurements. Yet the recent attack on Prime MInister Robert Fico, coupled with recent governmental assaults on independent institutions including public broadcasters, makes Slovakia appear dysfunctional and inspired by neighbouring Hungary. Despite this, the authoritarians have not yet won, writes Max Steuer ([link removed]) .


** From the Index archives
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** Naming history’s forgotten fighters
by Raymond Joseph
April 2018
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[link removed] wasn't just India at the polls this week - South Africa was voting too. The African National Congress, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, won 40% of the vote. It means that the party does not have a parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years. Which opposition party will it turn to in order to form the next government? As we ponder the result, take a moment to read this article which showed how a previous political party was written out of South Africa's emergence from apartheid ([link removed]) .
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Index on Censorship defends people's freedom to express themselves without fear of harm or persecution. We publish censored writers and artists, monitor and campaign against censorship, and encourage debate.

We rely on donations from readers and supporters. By donating ([link removed]) to Index you help us to protect freedom of expression and to support those who are denied that right.
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