After more than six gruelling weeks and hundreds of millions of votes, India’s general election finally drew to a prolonged close this week. As predicted, current Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been re-elected for a third successive term, but the results aren’t as comfortable as expected for the seasoned leader.
 
The election has challenged the dominance of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), who have had their parliamentary majority significantly reduced to the extent that they will now have to enter a coalition in order to form a government in the world’s most populous nation.
 
This was a surprising outcome for several reasons. Data from the exit polls - usually the most reliable when it comes to predicting election outcomes - projected a landslide victory for the BJP, although analysts warned that these polls are not always impartial. The BJP themselves also expected to sweep to victory and had even run on the slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar”, meaning they aimed to win 400 seats. Instead, they won just 240 seats as a single party, and scraped to a slim majority of 283 with the alliance.
 
Our contributing editor Salil Tripathi says, “Nobody, least of all Modi himself, thought the electoral outcome would be such a setback for him. To be sure, his party has still won more than double the seats of its nearest rival, the Congress, and its own tally exceeds the entire opposition alliance. And yet, the fact is that he has lost his majority. The poor, the rural voters, the marginalised, and the dispossessed weren't swayed by the Rama temple, they weren't enthusiastic about the G20 summit, the rocket on the far side of the moon, or the world's tallest statue or largest cricket stadium. They were concerned about access to food, serviceable roads in rural areas, and the lack of jobs. And so they turned away from his divisive rhetoric. The poor in India get to express themselves only at elections, and that's the only time elite India listens to them. To that extent, this is a triumph of democracy.”
 
Modi is not infallible.
 
It’s not often that Modi has had to face questions over his leadership during his time in power - his personal brand has grown far beyond that of the BJP. This dramatic loss of seats has therefore taken most people by surprise. However, when we look at the actions of the government over the last few years, perhaps it shouldn’t come as such a shock that people in India aren’t completely convinced that the party has their best interests in mind.
 
The BJP have been steadily chipping away at the right to free speech over the course of Modi’s two terms in office. Since the party came to power, more than 100 politicians have been investigated by federal agencies - 95% of which have been from opposition parties. Last December, 141 opposition lawmakers were suspended from parliament for protesting a security leak. The crackdown on opposition members in the build up to the election was so severe that Amnesty International described it as having reached “crisis point”.
 
The election itself also showcased the threats facing free expression in the country. Modi openly targeted Muslims during his election campaign, spouting Islamophobic conspiracy theories and anti-minority rhetoric during his rallies. The campaign season was also plagued by accusations of misinformation. Divyendra Singh Jadoun - the founder of an AI media company who is widely known as the “Indian Deepfaker” - told Index that his organisation had been asked on a number of occasions to create fake, unethical content of electoral candidates.
 
At Index, we have been following the escalating free speech issues in the country closely, dedicating an issue of our magazine to Modi’s age of intolerance in 2023. We also announced yesterday the launch of a new project to protect free expression online in India as the government reiterates its commitment to passing the Digital India Act - a piece of legislation aimed at improving internet safety but which has potential to become a tool for censorship.
 
Yet even with these oppressive tactics, Modi’s influence has waned due to the power of the electorate.
 
Of course, it’s too early to know exactly what the election result means for the future of Indian politics. A stronger, more present opposition can only be a good thing, and the coalition government may force the BJP to tone down some of their authoritarian tendencies. However, there’s always a risk that Modi may attempt to reassert his authority by clamping down on free expression further.
 
Nevertheless, in a year dubbed the biggest election year in history, Modi’s setback serves as a timely reminder that democracy can prevail against the odds. Things aren’t all rosy; Modi is still in power and likely will remain there for at least another five years. If his previous terms are anything to go by then we know that he could do some serious damage to rights and freedoms in that time. But these days we have to take the positives we can get.
 
Hopefully this election is a sign of better things to come.
 
Daisy Ruddock, editorial assistant