Dear MoveOn member,

Finally, some good news: President Biden is closing in on Donald Trump in
the polls.

In February, Biden trailed Trump by 4 percentage points in New York Times
polling. Now, that same poll has Biden behind Trump by only 1 percentage
point.^1 Biden also is gaining ground in battleground states.^2

Newsweek's headline read, "Donald Trump's Polling Numbers Are Dropping."^3

And Bloomberg had this to say: "Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six
Key States, Poll Shows."^4

But, John, we still have a big, big problem buried in the
details of the polling data. This election isn't going to be a mere Biden
v. Trump rematch. It's going to be Biden v. Trump v. Robert Kennedy Jr.

And Kennedy Jr.'s presence on the ballot could very well hand the election
to Trump. One political data expert calculates that Kennedy Jr.'s presence
on the ballot could siphon off "five points of Biden's support to Trump's
two."^5 In effect, that means Kennedy Jr. gives Trump a net 3 percentage
point boost in the race.

In an election that will be decided by razor-thin margins in a small
handful of battleground states, Kennedy Jr. could be the difference
between winning and losing this election—and the tipping point in plunging
our nation into a dangerous second Trump term.



[ [link removed] ]MoveOn has an ambitious, $32 million plan to reach voters, help them
understand the stakes, and defeat third-party spoilers who would throw the
election to Trump, before it's too late. Will you donate $9
today to power our election plan?



Kennedy Jr.'s candidacy is especially dangerous because he appeals to a
significant number of young voters—who are a cornerstone of the coalition
that defeated Trump and elected Biden in 2020.

Vanity Fair put it bluntly: "A Bats*it Number of Young Swing State Voters
Think RFK Jr. Should Be President."^6

The great news is that young voters reject MAGA by 20-point margins.^7

But reaching young voters isn't easy, and we have a great deal of
get-out-the-vote work to do to reach those voters and educate them about
the stakes, how the Electoral College works, and the importance of voting
for Biden.

To prevent a nightmare scenario, MoveOn is running a comprehensive
campaign designed to mitigate the risks posed by Kennedy Jr. and ensure
the election reflects the will of the American people. Our strategy
includes the following:

* Voter education and mobilization. Educating voters about Kennedy Jr.'s
positions, such as his support for a national abortion ban. We're
launching targeted campaigns to inform voters about the dangers of a
fragmented vote and the importance of voting for President Biden.
* Strategic outreach to surge voters. We've already identified more than
11 million surge voters—those who have shown they will vote for
Democrats but may not vote consistently. Four million of these are in
key states, and 1.5 million of those are contactable by phone or
email. We're laser-focused on those 1.5 million voters; if we can sway
even a small fraction of them to vote, it may be enough to tip the
election in our favor.
* Efforts to create a unified front. Amid the current political turmoil,
clarity and unity have never been more important. If young voters
divide their votes between Democrats and third-party spoilers, it
could lead to a nightmare scenario, and we can't let that happen.
That's why we're calling on every progressive to unite and ensure that
our collective voice is heard loud and clear at the ballot box.

But right now, all of this work is in jeopardy—because we're behind in our
election plan fundraising, and we need your help to catch up.

Stopping third-party candidates from spoiling the 2024 election is
critical work that requires patience and one-on-one conversations. And
there is no substitute for it.



[ [link removed] ]Will you help put our plan into action by donating
$9 today?



Thanks for all you do.

–Mohammad, Noor, Emma, Alexis, and the rest of the team

Sources:

1. "Biden closes gap on Trump but third-party candidates pose danger,
polls show," The Guardian, April 14, 2024
[link removed]

2. "Joe Biden Gains Ground on Donald Trump in Critical Swing States,"
Newsweek, April 13, 2024
[link removed]

3. "Donald Trump's Polling Numbers Are Dropping," Newsweek, April 15, 2024
[link removed]

4. "Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six Key States, Poll Shows,"
Bloomberg, March 26, 2024
[link removed]

5. "Biden closes gap on Trump but third-party candidates pose danger,
polls show," The Guardian, April 14, 2024
[link removed]

6. "A Batshit Number of Young Swing State Voters Think RFK Jr. Should Be
President," Vanity Fair, November 7, 2023
[link removed]

7. "New poll highlights young voter interests for 2024," The Hill, March
4, 2024
[link removed]


Want to support MoveOn's work? The MAGA movement's book bans have forced
teachers and librarians across the country to remove books from their
shelves and censor what young people can learn. MoveOn is fighting back,
including by filling a "Banned Bookmobile" with books that the far right
has banned and driving it to key cities and towns to raise the visibility
of book bans, hand out banned books for free, and bring people together to
stop censorship. To keep up the fight against book bans and the MAGA
politicians who support them, we need your help.

Will you make a gift to power MoveOn's critical work?



[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------

PAID FOR BY MOVEON POLITICAL ACTION, [ [link removed] ][link removed]?.
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. MoveOn Political
Action - PO Box 96142, Washington, D.C. 20090-6142.



You can unsubscribe from this mailing list at any time:
[link removed]