Dear MoveOn member,

Finally, some good news: President Biden is closing in on Donald Trump in the polls.

In February, Biden trailed Trump by 4 percentage points in New York Times polling. Now, that same poll has Biden behind Trump by only 1 percentage point.¹ Biden also is gaining ground in battleground states.²

Newsweek's headline read, "Donald Trump's Polling Numbers Are Dropping."³

And Bloomberg had this to say: "Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six Key States, Poll Shows."⁴

But, John, we still have a big, big problem buried in the details of the polling data. This election isn't going to be a mere Biden v. Trump rematch. It's going to be Biden v. Trump v. Robert Kennedy Jr.

And Kennedy Jr.'s presence on the ballot could very well hand the election to Trump. One political data expert calculates that Kennedy Jr.'s presence on the ballot could siphon off "five points of Biden's support to Trump's two."⁵ In effect, that means Kennedy Jr. gives Trump a net 3 percentage point boost in the race.

In an election that will be decided by razor-thin margins in a small handful of battleground states, Kennedy Jr. could be the difference between winning and losing this election—and the tipping point in plunging our nation into a dangerous second Trump term.

MoveOn has an ambitious, $32 million plan to reach voters, help them understand the stakes, and defeat third-party spoilers who would throw the election to Trump, before it's too late. Will you donate $9 today to power our election plan?

Kennedy Jr.'s candidacy is especially dangerous because he appeals to a significant number of young voters—who are a cornerstone of the coalition that defeated Trump and elected Biden in 2020.

Vanity Fair put it bluntly: "A Bats*it Number of Young Swing State Voters Think RFK Jr. Should Be President."⁶

The great news is that young voters reject MAGA by 20-point margins.⁷

But reaching young voters isn't easy, and we have a great deal of get-out-the-vote work to do to reach those voters and educate them about the stakes, how the Electoral College works, and the importance of voting for Biden.

To prevent a nightmare scenario, MoveOn is running a comprehensive campaign designed to mitigate the risks posed by Kennedy Jr. and ensure the election reflects the will of the American people. Our strategy includes the following:

Voter education and mobilization. Educating voters about Kennedy Jr.'s positions, such as his support for a national abortion ban. We're launching targeted campaigns to inform voters about the dangers of a fragmented vote and the importance of voting for President Biden.
Strategic outreach to surge voters. We've already identified more than 11 million surge voters—those who have shown they will vote for Democrats but may not vote consistently. Four million of these are in key states, and 1.5 million of those are contactable by phone or email. We're laser-focused on those 1.5 million voters; if we can sway even a small fraction of them to vote, it may be enough to tip the election in our favor.
Efforts to create a unified front. Amid the current political turmoil, clarity and unity have never been more important. If young voters divide their votes between Democrats and third-party spoilers, it could lead to a nightmare scenario, and we can't let that happen. That's why we're calling on every progressive to unite and ensure that our collective voice is heard loud and clear at the ballot box.

But right now, all of this work is in jeopardy—because we're behind in our election plan fundraising, and we need your help to catch up.

Stopping third-party candidates from spoiling the 2024 election is critical work that requires patience and one-on-one conversations. And there is no substitute for it.

Will you help put our plan into action by donating $9 today?

Thanks for all you do.

–Mohammad, Noor, Emma, Alexis, and the rest of the team

Sources:

1. "Biden closes gap on Trump but third-party candidates pose danger, polls show," The Guardian, April 14, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/189548?t=4&akid=380789%2E40999114%2E8uct9l

2. "Joe Biden Gains Ground on Donald Trump in Critical Swing States," Newsweek, April 13, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/189549?t=6&akid=380789%2E40999114%2E8uct9l

3. "Donald Trump's Polling Numbers Are Dropping," Newsweek, April 15, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/189550?t=8&akid=380789%2E40999114%2E8uct9l

4. "Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six Key States, Poll Shows," Bloomberg, March 26, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/189551?t=10&akid=380789%2E40999114%2E8uct9l

5. "Biden closes gap on Trump but third-party candidates pose danger, polls show," The Guardian, April 14, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/189548?t=12&akid=380789%2E40999114%2E8uct9l

6. "A Batshit Number of Young Swing State Voters Think RFK Jr. Should Be President," Vanity Fair, November 7, 2023
https://act.moveon.org/go/188531?t=14&akid=380789%2E40999114%2E8uct9l

7. "New poll highlights young voter interests for 2024," The Hill, March 4, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/188543?t=16&akid=380789%2E40999114%2E8uct9l

Want to support MoveOn's work? The MAGA movement's book bans have forced teachers and librarians across the country to remove books from their shelves and censor what young people can learn. MoveOn is fighting back, including by filling a "Banned Bookmobile" with books that the far right has banned and driving it to key cities and towns to raise the visibility of book bans, hand out banned books for free, and bring people together to stop censorship. To keep up the fight against book bans and the MAGA politicians who support them, we need your help.

Will you make a gift to power MoveOn's critical work?

Yes, I'll chip in.

PAID FOR BY MOVEON POLITICAL ACTION, https://pol.moveon.org/. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. MoveOn Political Action - PO Box 96142, Washington, D.C. 20090-6142.

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