Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** April 16, 2024
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Why Russia Doesn’t Want an Israel-Iran War
All eyes are on the Middle East following Iran's aerial attack against Israel this weekend. Retaliating for what is widely thought to have been an Israeli strike on an Iranian embassy in Syria earlier this month, Tehran fired hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel--nearly all of which were intercepted.
The strikes have increased tensions in the region and sparked new fears of a wider war. It's unclear how or when Israel may respond, but leaders from around the world are urging restraint in hopes of avoiding further escalation.
Just days before Iran's attack, RAND's Michelle Gris wrote about the prospects of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran. She focused on why Russia, which has deepened its partnership with Iran in recent years, "stands to lose a great deal" if such a war breaks out.
For one, a broader conflict in the Middle East--particularly one that involves a direct clash between Israel and Iran--could cause new tensions between Russia and Iran. It would limit Iran's ability to continue serving as a military supplier to Russia, and lead Tehran to demand more Russian support when Moscow has limited capacity to provide it.
Further, a war in the Middle East could give China an opening to serve as a mediator. This may be especially worrying for Moscow, as its war in Ukraine has already contributed to Russia's growing dependence on China.
Gris notes that Russia has capitalized on instability in the Middle East in the past. Look no further than Syria and Libya, where it was able to establish itself as a regional security guarantor. But this time, Moscow is in no position to reap similar benefits from a broad conflict in the region.
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** More Insights on the Middle East
- In Wired, RAND's David Ochmanek discussed how a range of defense systems, including Israel's Iron Dome, impeded the progress of Iranian drones and cruise missiles.
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- RAND's Raphael Cohen spoke to The National about what an Israeli response could look like. If Israel chooses not to respond, he said, it will likely be for political reasons.
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- In a separate interview with Al Arabiya, Cohen discussed why Iran's attack marks a "significant escalation" in the long-standing conflict between Israel and Iran.
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Helping Schools Respond to Social Media Threats
Between 2021 and 2022, the number of threats against schools rose by 60 percent. Such threats are typically made anonymously over social media and are often meant as jokes or intended to create havoc across a school or district. This makes responding to them a challenge: Schools must balance the risk that a threat might be credible with the trauma and disruption that result from repeated responses to hoaxes. A new RAND study examines this issue and identifies how to improve the way schools assess and respond to social media threats.
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What Defines Success in a Great-Power Rivalry?
The U.S. rivalry with China--and, to a lesser extent, with Russia--promises to define U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges for decades. What does success look like in this type of strategic competition? In a new report, RAND researchers attempt to answer this question by examining great-power rivalries of the past. They find that these rivalries tend to end in one of three ways: Either one side collapses or is conquered; one side decides to give up; or both sides agree to form a different relationship. Importantly, outcomes short of those results often only lead to a more bitter confrontation.
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** RAND Recommends
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- With U.S. aid to Ukraine delayed--and its long-term future uncertain--Kyiv is struggling on the front lines. RAND Europe's Bryden Spurling spoke to NBC News about the situation.
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- Russia's false claims that the Moscow terror attack was orchestrated by Ukraine and Western powers may be convincing to many Russians, writes RAND's Ryan Bauer.
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RAND's Timothy Heath was quoted in the South China Morning Post about the potential expansion of AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
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** Events
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How Gendered Perspectives Shape National Security
Thursday, April 18, 2024 (Santa Monica, CA, and Online)
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Policy Lab: How Can New Technologies Help Mitigate the Effects of Climate Change?
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 (Online)
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Long War in Europe: Options for the United States, Poland, and Allies for 2024 and Beyond
Thursday, April 25, 2024 (Washington, D.C., and Online)
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** Analyzing the Rise of AI: Insights from RAND
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AI tools are evolving quickly, and decisionmakers are grappling with how to maximize the potential benefits and minimize the risks. Insights from RAND can help. Our researchers have been studying how AI will affect national security, the economy, health care, and much more.
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